Global Economics Update Policy to diverge further in 2015 Although the Fed and BoE are likely to start raising rates by the middle of 2015, global monetary conditions should remain very loose next year. The ECB is gearing up to announce a “full-blown” QE... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What role for exchange rate ceilings? The Swiss National Bank introduced a negative deposit rate yesterday, but its main tool to combat the threat of deflation is a ceiling for the Swiss franc. Given the continued threat of deflation and... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs show global economy ending 2014 on a weaker note Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs suggest that the pace of global growth has cooled a little further in recent weeks. Nonetheless, the slowdown since the summer has been milder than the tone of media... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Winners and (even bigger) losers from lower oil prices Most countries (and the world as a whole) should be better off as a result of the slump in oil prices, including key emerging markets such as China and India. Of the major advanced economies, Japan is... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The global impact of Russia’s crisis (revisited) The dramatic escalation of Russia’s crisis over the past twenty four hours is clearly not good news for the world economy. Nonetheless, both trade and financial links between Russia and the rest of... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What if oil prices fall to $40? The slump in oil prices to $60 per barrel should be a clear net gain for the world economy. Indeed, the potential boost to global demand is one important reason to expect prices to level out soon... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Lower oil prices to benefit US consumers the most The collapse in global oil prices since June should directly benefit consumers in advanced economies by more than $200bn a year, or around 0.8% of their overall consumption. But the gains will be... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update More winners than losers from further slump in oil prices The latest slump in the oil price has wreaked havoc on some emerging economies and has taken a toll on the share prices of energy firms. Nonetheless, cheaper oil is still a net positive for global GDP... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update More evidence that global growth slowed in November Final manufacturing PMIs for November confirm that global growth is slowing, with activity weaker in the euro-zone, Japan and China. However, the further slump in the oil price, to around $70 per... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update ECB to join Bank of Japan in full-blown QE Although the Fed ended its asset purchases in October, and is set to start raising policy rates in the coming months, global monetary conditions will remain ultra-loose as the ECB and BoJ undertake... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How widespread is the threat of deflation? The drop in global commodity prices, coupled with a slowdown in global growth, will push headline inflation rates in a number of economies into negative territory. But, other than Japan, the risk of a... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to slightly slower global growth Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs suggest that the world economy is not growing as rapidly as it was in the third quarter. Nonetheless, the slowdown has been more gradual than many commentators have... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How would QE in the euro-zone affect the rest of the world? If and when the ECB implements “full-blown QE”, there may be some positive spillovers for the rest of the world, but they would not be large. Countries elsewhere in Europe would benefit most from... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the G20 This weekend’s summit should end with pledges by individual G20 governments to implement reforms designed to boost growth. Even if little of this is new, the focus on growth is preferable to the... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Russia’s troubles to have limited global fall-out Russia’s economic prospects are going from bad to worse, but barring a major escalation of geopolitical tensions, the effects beyond central and eastern Europe should be modest. The world’s largest... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is there a case for another Plaza Accord? Although co-ordinated exchange rate intervention is taboo at present, it has been attempted in the past and could, in principle, be tried again in future. Admittedly, both the political and economic... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
