Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Manufacturing PMIs suggest that global manufacturing growth remained steady in November, despite a sharp slowdown in the US. 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions to remain loose in 2016 The broad money supply is growing steadily and the growth of credit to nonfinancial companies has been recovering in recent months. With bond yields still very low and several central banks likely to... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Flash PMIs published today and yesterday suggest that manufacturing growth has continued at a moderate pace in advanced economies in November, notwithstanding the weakness of some emerging economies. 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four key charts on the commodities “rout” (and the BDI) This Update aims to provide some perspective on the recent slides in oil and copper prices and the new record lows for the Baltic Dry Index of global shipping costs. It includes a more positive view... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat from emerging economies? Advanced economies have proved resilient this year in the face of a slowdown in emerging markets (EMs). As it happens, we think EM growth is likely to recover, gradually, in the coming months. But... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Time for Dr. Copper to be struck off? The continued slide in the price of copper has added to concerns about global growth. However, the industrial metal’s track record at diagnosing the health of the world economy has actually been shaky... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What’s behind the pick-up in core inflation? While media headlines have focused on low energy prices and the risks of deflation, core inflation has actually risen in most advanced economies in recent months. However, it has done so for very... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the G20 Antalya summit The annual G20 leaders’ summit, to be held in Turkey on 15-16 th November, should be less acrimonious than many previous gatherings. Tensions over exchange rate policy, global imbalances, fiscal and... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should we worry about falling commodity prices? The renewed weakness in global commodity prices, notably oil and copper, is obviously a concern forproducers and will continue to constrain activity in the mining sector. However, the current... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is sluggish trade growth a warning sign for the global economy? The OECD’s warning yesterday that weak trade growth may herald an economic downturn is wide of the mark. Trade in goods has continued to grow in line with industrial output and the link between trade... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the inclusion of the RMB in the SDR be a game-changer? Although the addition of China’s currency to the SDR basket may provide a short-term boost for the renminbi, its appeal as a reserve asset will be constrained by lack of convertibility and liquidity... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six reasons for optimism about the world economy Many commentators have suggested that the next global recession may be just around the corner. In contrast, our view is that the balance of risks to world growth this year and next now lies on the... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for labour markets and wages? Unemployment rates in the US, euro-zone, Japan, and UK are likely to continue falling gradually over the coming years. However, the prospects for wage growth in these four economies vary considerably. 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The final Markit manufacturing PMIs for October reinforce our view that global growth is holding up much better than many seem to fear. Indeed, the headline readings for the US, China, the euro-zone... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update GDP data for Q3 point to slowdown, not meltdown Data released so far indicate that the world economy held up fairly well in Q3, contrary to widely-held fears of a sharp deceleration. What’s more, global growth is likely to strengthen over the... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Money aggregates growing steadily Monetary conditions remain highly accommodative in most advanced economies, notwithstanding the rise in corporate bond yields since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, broad monetary aggregates are... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
