Global Economics Update Emerging economies still contributing most to world growth Growth in emerging economies has slowed significantly during the past few years and prospects forthe near future are not much better. Nonetheless, our latest forecasts suggest that emerging... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global prospects for next two years are brighter, but not great Six years after the financial crisis, the world is slowly returning to more “normal” conditions which should support a gradual pick-up in growth. However, the legacy of the crisis will hamper the... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How will the US stock market handle Fed tightening? The US stock market has tended to fare quite well during previous Fed tightening cycles. Although we think its performance in the next cycle will be below average, we still expect it to creep higher. 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing ends Q2 on a strong note Business surveys point to a reasonably strong expansion of global manufacturing activity in June and are consistent with a rebound in world GDP growth in Q2. However, while manufacturing output... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Too early to stop worrying about deflation (except in the US) In its Annual Report, published at the weekend, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) argued that “the risk of persistent and self-perpetuating disinflationary pressure is low” and that the... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone missing out on global recovery Preliminary business surveys for June suggest that global manufacturing activity is expanding at a moderate pace, thanks to a rebound in growth in the US and stabilisation in both China and Japan... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Three oil price scenarios from the Iraq crisis The situation in Iraq could play out in many ways. In a “good” scenario, the crisis would ease soon and there could even be some positive fallout for the region. (Our current forecast that Brent will... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Rate hikes in sight but policy still very loose Market expectations for policy rates have diverged in the past few weeks. The Bank of England suggested that its first rate hike could take place sooner than previously anticipated. Expectations for... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What's the tipping point for oil prices? We would be wary of assertions that there is a single “magic number” for the oil price beyond which the world economy enters a danger zone. Nonetheless, global growth has been sluggish ever since... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update First rate hikes may be approaching, but policy to stay loose The growing likelihood that the first interest rate hikes will come earlier than previously anticipated will probably have far bigger implications for financial markets than for economic prospects. In... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Iraq crisis tops a long list of geopolitical risks There are good reasons to be relaxed about the global economic fall-out from the latest crisis in Iraq, including the possibility that it might actually lead to an improvement in relations between the... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Low market volatility is raising long-term risks The low levels of volatility in financial markets reflect a high degree of confidence in the ability of the authorities to prevent crises and respond to shocks, expectations that any policy changes... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs point to stronger global growth in Q2 Final manufacturing PMIs for May support the view that global growth is likely to pick up in Q2 after a weak start to the year, due to a rebound in the US and stabilisation in China. 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Weak global growth unlikely to prevent rebound in US yields Canada continues to lead the recovery among the G7 economies after a relatively shallow recession. However, the US is only just behind, despite stumbling in Q1, and looks in better shape. Softness... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Mixed picture for global manufacturing Preliminary business surveys published today confirm that economic activity is expanding rapidly in the US and that China’s manufacturing sector has stabilised. However, the industrial recovery in the... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions ease further Bond yields and interest rate expectations have declined during the past few weeks. Moreover, our measure of the monetary base in advanced economies has expanded further as the Fed and BoJ have... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
