Global Economics Update What role for exchange rate policy? In the majority of advanced economies, policymakers allow the exchange rate to be determined by the currency markets. We think they are likely to continue doing so for the foreseeable future, for... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Explaining the divergence between the G7 economies GDP data published today show Japan joining Canada, the US, Germany and France in regaining their pre-crisis levels of output. With the UK nearly there too, Italy is the clear laggard among the G7. 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How will the US and UK housing markets affect growth? House price developments have raised concerns on both sides of the Atlantic recently. The worry is that the housing market may be overheating in the UK but cooling in the US. For now, though, we don’t... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is China about to "overtake" the US? The significance of revised purchasing power parity estimates, which suggest that China’s total GDP may overtake that of the US as soon as this year, is not as great as some of the headlines imply... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six questions and answers on the Ukraine crisis We have already written extensively on the crisis in Ukraine and its potential economic and market impacts. (The most relevant publications are listed on page 2.) But as the crisis is back in the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing activity steady at start of Q2 Preliminary business surveys suggest that the recovery of global manufacturing continued in April. Activity in the euro-zone has picked up, but this has not eliminated the threat of deflation. Growth... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary indicators show US pulling ahead The rebound in lending to non-financial companies in the US supports our view that the recovery there is gathering momentum. It also contrasts with still-lacklustre credit growth in Japan and with... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Too soon to write off Japan as an export powerhouse The swing in Japan’s trade balance from large surpluses to large deficits is back in the news after the March data (released yesterday) confirmed a record shortfall in the fiscal year just ended... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fiscal drag easing faster than expected The fiscal drag in advanced economies is fading more rapidly than previously anticipated. This should provide some support for the global recovery both this year and next. However, the longer-term... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Russia would be the main casualty of a “gas war” There would be very few winners from any further escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, but Russia still has more to lose in economic and financial terms than the West. In particular, Western European... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Austerity easing faster than expected The fiscal drag in advanced economies is fading more rapidly than previously forecast, which should provide some support for the global recovery in the coming year or two. But the longer-term outlook... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for global real interest rates? Continued high savings rates in emerging economies and weak investment in advanced economies suggest that real interest rates will remain low for many years. In addition, policy-makers have a strong... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing growing steadily A range of business surveys published today and yesterday suggest that global manufacturing output is still growing at a reasonable pace, led by the US. However, the euro-zone’s recovery has continued... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could US energy exports help Europe? There are still significant hurdles to clear before the US becomes a major energy exporter. Indeed, the US (in contrast to North America as a whole) may never quite achieve full energy independence... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further slowdown in China, but recovery in US and euro-zone Preliminary PMIs for March suggest that the US economy is rebounding from its weather-induced soft patch and that the euro-zone is continuing its gradual recovery. However, they also provide further... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed to continue winding down QE steadily As expected, the Fed announced a further reduction in its monthly asset purchases this month meaning it remains on course to end QE in the final quarter of the year. Nonetheless, it will still be... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
