Global Economics Update Global economy starts the year on a stronger footing Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs may be the first sign that the world economy is starting to reap the benefits of lower oil prices. They should also allay fears that the world economy is slipping into... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Which central banks will resist the policy-loosening trend? Central banks in several economies have loosened monetary policy this week and there is likely to be further easing to come. However, there are some exceptions among emerging markets, and we still... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF’s latest forecasts are still too optimistic The IMF’s latest forecasts for the world economy contain little new news because most of the changes reflect the Fund catching up with other forecasters since its last update in October. Although we... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we now worry about the fall in copper prices too? The sharp overnight fall in copper prices seems to have been driven by investor panic rather than a sudden deterioration in fundamentals and, as such, it could swiftly be reversed. Admittedly, copper... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How might debt restructuring by Greece affect the IMF? Whether or not Syriza forms its next government, Greece is unlikely to default on its bail-out loans from the IMF. However, if it does so, the political fallout for the IMF itself would be serious. 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why worry about deflation? The slump in the oil price means that headline inflation is likely to turn negative in the coming months in many advanced economies, just as it already has in the euro-zone. In general, deflation in... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World growth starts 2015 at slightly slower pace Business surveys indicate that global growth slowed further in December. But the slowdown was not as steep as suggested by some media reports, nor is it sufficient to justify the slump in oil prices... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fall in oil prices will radically alter global imbalances The collapse in oil prices looks set to wipe out the Gulf’s external surpluses next year, leaving China and the euro-zone as the world’s major surplus economies. At the same time, the US deficit looks... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A selection of key calls for 2015 and beyond We expect 2015 to be another year of large divergences in the performances of the advanced economies, with the US and the UK leading the pack and the euro-zone and Japan continuing to struggle. But... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Policy to diverge further in 2015 Although the Fed and BoE are likely to start raising rates by the middle of 2015, global monetary conditions should remain very loose next year. The ECB is gearing up to announce a “full-blown” QE... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What role for exchange rate ceilings? The Swiss National Bank introduced a negative deposit rate yesterday, but its main tool to combat the threat of deflation is a ceiling for the Swiss franc. Given the continued threat of deflation and... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs show global economy ending 2014 on a weaker note Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs suggest that the pace of global growth has cooled a little further in recent weeks. Nonetheless, the slowdown since the summer has been milder than the tone of media... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Winners and (even bigger) losers from lower oil prices Most countries (and the world as a whole) should be better off as a result of the slump in oil prices, including key emerging markets such as China and India. Of the major advanced economies, Japan is... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The global impact of Russia’s crisis (revisited) The dramatic escalation of Russia’s crisis over the past twenty four hours is clearly not good news for the world economy. Nonetheless, both trade and financial links between Russia and the rest of... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What if oil prices fall to $40? The slump in oil prices to $60 per barrel should be a clear net gain for the world economy. Indeed, the potential boost to global demand is one important reason to expect prices to level out soon... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Lower oil prices to benefit US consumers the most The collapse in global oil prices since June should directly benefit consumers in advanced economies by more than $200bn a year, or around 0.8% of their overall consumption. But the gains will be... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
