Global Economics Update How do the US and UK labour markets compare? The recent sharp falls in the unemployment rate in the US and particularly the UK have raised expectations that their central banks may soon be forced to tighten monetary policy in order to head off a... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update EM sell-off to have little impact on global economy The recent volatility in emerging markets may have a negative impact on some developing countries, but it should not prevent a gradual acceleration of growth in advanced economies. 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Austerity easing, but unevenly The worst period of global fiscal austerity is finally passing and this should give a boost to growth in advanced economies, at least relative to 2013. But the benefits will vary between countries... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone recovery offset by slowdown in China Business surveys published today suggest that the euro-zone recovery gained momentum in January, while China's manufacturing slowdown has continued. 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update No sign that Japan is exporting deflation Fears that yen weakness will trigger a surge of cheap Japanese exports and hence raise the risks of deflation elsewhere have, so far at least, proved wide of the mark. In practice, Japan’s firms have... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will falling commodity prices trigger deflation? We expect ample supply to result in large falls in global oil prices in the next few years. At the same time, the prices of other key commodities, including industrial metals and agriculturals, are... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary aggregates gradually recovering Recent trends in corporate credit growth underline the diverging fortunes of advanced economies. In the US, bank lending is expanding at a decent pace, albeit more slowly than it was in 2012, and even... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy still has plenty of spare capacity Some commentators have suggested that the global business cycle is now quite advanced and that markets should expect much tighter monetary policy as soon as 2015. We disagree. 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy enters 2014 with fairly strong momentum Business surveys for December suggest that the world economy continued to grow at a solid pace at the end of 2013. We expect this to be sustained throughout most of this year. However, as there is... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fiscal austerity to continue but will be less severe next year Austerity will be a drag on growth in advanced economies next year, but the squeeze should be smaller than this year. Moreover, the risks of further fiscal tightening have fallen since US politicians... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update December business surveys suggest growth levelling off The world economy has gained momentum during the past twelve months, but the latest evidence, including several business surveys published today, suggests that it may no longer be accelerating. 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update "Historic" WTO agreement is not such a big deal The deal signed in Bali this weekend was reached only after the bulk of the Doha trade agenda was dropped from the negotiations. We doubt that it will make much difference to world trade volumes and... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary expansion continues Our measure of the aggregate monetary base in advanced economies has expanded rapidly during the past few months as both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have pressed on with their asset... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing strengthened in November Business surveys published today suggest that the manufacturing recovery strengthened further in November, led by the US, UK and Japan. The euro-zone, however, is largely missing out, and there are... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Business surveys highlight uneven pace of growth Although the global recovery seems to be gradually gaining momentum, led by faster growth in the US, preliminary business surveys for November underline how uneven growth is. In particular, China’s... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Pace of further globalisation likely to remain sluggish Globalisation appears to have stalled since 2008, even as the world economy has recovered. This suggests that structural changes have reduced the incentives for closer integration. With little... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
