Global Economics Update What are the prospects for wage inflation? With the important exception of the US, we expect wage inflation in the major advanced economies to remain subdued in the coming year or two, even as labour markets approach “full employment”. 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global economy too reliant on the US Preliminary business surveys for August, which were published by Markit today, suggest that growthcontinues to be sluggish in Japan and the euro-zone and that China’s economy is slowing. In contrast... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still loose Global monetary conditions have remained highly accommodative even though theUS Fed is now just a couple of months away from completing QE3. The latest senior loan officer surveys show that the demand... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are global growth fears overdone? The world economy does not appear to be heading for a major slowdown, despite the weak Q2 GDP data from the euro-zone and Japan and some softer monthly indicators from China. The most reliable survey... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Low inflation a threat to fiscal policy in the euro-zone and Japan Continued very low inflation is likely to have anegative impact on debt ratios in both Japan andthe euro-zone during the coming years. Insouthern euro-zone countries real interest rateswill probably... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing makes mixed start to Q3 Flash manufacturing PMIs published today indicate that the second-quarter rebounds in the US andChina have continued in July. But the euro-zone’s recovery still looks fragile and Japan is struggling... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Russia still the biggest loser from Western sanctions The direct effects on the European economy of any sanctions-related disruption to trade with Russiawould not be trivial but the impact via energy markets may be less than many fear. Sentiment could... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still easy Although the first US and UK interest rate hikes are now in sight, a combination offactors, including asset purchases by the Fed and BoJ and further policy easing bythe ECB, has caused global bond... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy able to cope with higher US interest rates We do not think the global recovery will be derailed by tighter US monetary policy during the comingtwo years. This is because the Fed is unlikely to raise rates aggressively, other central banks are... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Emerging economies still contributing most to world growth Growth in emerging economies has slowed significantly during the past few years and prospects forthe near future are not much better. Nonetheless, our latest forecasts suggest that emerging... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global prospects for next two years are brighter, but not great Six years after the financial crisis, the world is slowly returning to more “normal” conditions which should support a gradual pick-up in growth. However, the legacy of the crisis will hamper the... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How will the US stock market handle Fed tightening? The US stock market has tended to fare quite well during previous Fed tightening cycles. Although we think its performance in the next cycle will be below average, we still expect it to creep higher. 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing ends Q2 on a strong note Business surveys point to a reasonably strong expansion of global manufacturing activity in June and are consistent with a rebound in world GDP growth in Q2. However, while manufacturing output... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Too early to stop worrying about deflation (except in the US) In its Annual Report, published at the weekend, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) argued that “the risk of persistent and self-perpetuating disinflationary pressure is low” and that the... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone missing out on global recovery Preliminary business surveys for June suggest that global manufacturing activity is expanding at a moderate pace, thanks to a rebound in growth in the US and stabilisation in both China and Japan... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Three oil price scenarios from the Iraq crisis The situation in Iraq could play out in many ways. In a “good” scenario, the crisis would ease soon and there could even be some positive fallout for the region. (Our current forecast that Brent will... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
