Global Economics Update Record cereal prices not a big inflation threat Some agricultural commodity prices have hit record highs this week, but the rate of increase of these prices is much lower than it was in 2007 or 2011, while energy prices are still lower than they... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six reasons not to panic about US grain prices Fears of the “worst drought in the US in 25 years” have led to a spike in US grain prices and understandably added to concerns about another global food inflation shock. However, there are at least... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Policymakers will struggle to support global growth Hopes that the EU was finally getting to grips with its crisis and that monetary stimulus would boost global demand have faded. With euro break-up risk likely to rise in the second half of the year... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big a threat is protectionism? The increase in protectionist policies since 2008 has so far had only a modest impact on world trade. Looking forward, however, pressures to adopt more damaging trade barriers may increase... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How vulnerable is South Africa to the euro-crisis? Compared to 2008-09, South Africa is now less vulnerable to financial contagion as a result of a fresh shock to the global economy, most notably from a break-up of the euro-zone. But at the same time... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global slowdown gathers momentum With the US recovery faltering and prospects for Japan and the euro-zone worsening, there are growing risks that global growth will fall short even of our below-consensus 3% forecast this year. 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Collapse in oil prices will not save world economy The slump in oil prices results from faltering global demand and growing fears of an escalation of the euro-zone crisis. As such, it is wishful thinking to imagine that cheap oil can itself generate a... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 summit meets low expectations The best that can be said about the Los Cabos summit is that it appears to have been less fractious and better organised than November’s meeting in Cannes. But it seems to have done precious little to... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Would euro break-up trigger a Lehman-style global crisis? Our working assumption is that there will only be a limited break-up of the euro-zone, with Greece and one or two other smaller countries leaving this year or next but policy-makers managing the... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the G20 achieve anything in Mexico? The G20 leaders’ summit, to be held in Los Cabos next week, will once again be overshadowed by the euro-zone crisis. Apart from confirmation of a substantial increase in resources for the IMF, which... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are historical monetary break-ups relevant to the euro-zone? The break-up of the euro-zone would be an unprecedented event because the euro itself is unique. But there are still some useful lessons to be learnt from previous monetary splits. 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update South Africa: strong Q1, but growth already slowing South African growth surprised on the upside in the first quarter this year, but leading indicators already suggest the economy has slowed in Q2. We expect GDP to grow by just 2.3% over the course of... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Where is the safe haven demand for gold? The price of gold has dropped sharply in recent days and is barely changed in 2012 to date. The fact that gold has struggled despite the worsening crisis in Europe has added to doubts about its status... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth steady, US-Europe divergence persists Business surveys for April suggest the global economy began the second quarter at a steady but subdued growth rate of around 3%. They also suggest the divergence between moderate growth in the US and... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Three illustrative scenarios for the price of gold The lack of a reliable income stream makes gold notoriously hard to value objectively, whilst the key drivers constantly seem to be changing. The current price is around $1,645 per ounce, having been... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fears of global food price inflation unjustified Fears that the recent jump in some agricultural prices will lead to an upturn in world inflation are wide of the mark. Overall, agricultural prices have barely changed this year and are still much... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
