Global Economics Update PMIs point to continued weakness in Q4 Business surveys for October suggest the global recovery began the fourth quarter at the same subdued pace it recorded in the summer. They also suggest that the US and euro-zone economies continued to... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Risks of global food price shock continue to recede The jump in grains prices due to the exceptionally hot summer in the US still feeds headlines warning of another global food price shock similar to that in 2007-08. More recently, the spectre of... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can the US shrug off a euro-zone recession? We expect the euro-zone to experience a deep recession next year but the US to grow steadily, reflecting the region-specific nature of the crisis in Europe, improving fundamentals in the US and the... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update No end in sight for global austerity Whether or not you believe the IMF’s new estimates of the fiscal multiplier, budget cuts are due to intensify in advanced economies next year and will last longer than many had expected. 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Tokyo gatherings unlikely to amount to much Finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 meet tomorrow in Tokyo ahead of the annual gathering of the IMF and the World Bank there, which concludes on Sunday. Although these meetings can very... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF still too optimistic about global recovery in 2013 The IMF has reduced its projection for global growth this year yet again, and is now getting close to the 3% forecast which we have stuck to since January. However, while the IMF has also reduced its... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are global imbalances a thing of the past? The world’s current account imbalances have narrowed since 2008 as a result of the downturn in the US and the surge in investment in China. However, we think they will widen again in the medium term... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing improves in September, but still weak The latest purchasing managers’ surveys suggests global manufacturing conditions improved a little in September relative to August. But they are still consistent on past form with very low global... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Sluggish world trade drags down global recovery Disappointing trade figures have prompted us to cut our forecast for the growth of world trade volumes to just 2% this year. This is much lower than last year’s growth, and is slightly lower than our... 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will higher commodity prices offset the benefits of QE3? The recent decline in oil prices supports our view that a third round of quantitative easing from the US Fed is unlikely to cause global inflation to take off. Unfortunately, the boost to economic... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher agricultural prices to have little inflation impact Even if it is sustained, this year’s rise in agricultural prices will have little impact on headline consumer prices, particularly in advanced economies. What’s more, we expect commodity prices to... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Relative resilience of global services provides little comfort Global business surveys suggest there has been a more marked slowdown in the growth of manufacturing activity than in services in the past four months. But the former is a better indicator of the... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What will bring oil prices back down again? A coordinated release of official stocks is one possible trigger for a correction in oil prices, but we still think that it is neither imminent nor necessary. A more realistic assessment of the... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing weakens further in August The industrial slowdown which began in the second quarter has accelerated and is affecting advanced and emerging economies alike. GDP is likely to contract in the euro-zone and Japan in Q3, while... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World GDP growth slows further in Q2 It looks as if global GDP growth slipped below 3% on an annualised basis in the second quarter of this year, its lowest level since early 2009. We expect no improvement in the second half of the year. 15th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing makes weak start to Q3 The global economy, which slowed sharply in the second quarter, has made a poor start to the third. Growth appears to have slowed in most of the major advanced economies in July, supporting our view... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
