Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs point to slightly weaker growth in October Final manufacturing PMIs for October suggest that global growth may be slowing a little at the start of Q4, dragged down by the euro-zone’s chronic problems. But the US and UK continue to perform well... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions set to remain loose The likely end of the Fed’s asset purchases under QE3 does little to change the bigger picture that global monetary conditions remain very loose. 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the economic threat from Ebola? The Ebola crisis is, above all, an appalling tragedy for the communities affected, but the global economic and market impact is likely to be limited. The West African economies at the centre of the... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest that global growth fears are overdone Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs suggest that the pace of global growth barely slowed in October, and thus should help to calm fears that the global economy is shuddering to a halt. However, they... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Calls for looser fiscal policy likely to go unheeded There have been renewed calls for a relaxation offiscal austerity during the past month or so,primarily aimed at the surplus countries and, inparticular, at Germany. However, Germany’sgovernment... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Lower oil prices to have bigger implications for ECB than Fed The recent drop in oil prices is widely assumed to have strengthened the case for monetary policy remaining looser for longer. However, while we think it may encourage the ECB to loosen monetary... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global outlook nowhere near as bad as markets suggest Global growth is likely to remain well below its pre-crisis average for at least the next couple of years. However, while prospects for the euro-zone have gone from bad to worse, the outlook for the... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can US and euro-zone inflation really diverge? It would be unusual for inflation pressures to be building in some advanced economies and falling in others. Nonetheless, this is exactly what we expect to happen in the next year or two, as US... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How useful are the global PMIs? Although they have their drawbacks, business surveys – such as those published by Markit – are the most reliable guide to the state of global economic activity. The fact that they continue to point to... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Public finances still a major concern, despite easing austerity The IMF’s latest fiscal assessment, published yesterday, suggests that the period of acute austerity has now passed for advanced economies in aggregate. But public debt is still far too high... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat from “geopolitics”? Geopolitical risks have grabbed the headlines recently and have been cited as a key factor depressing global economic prospects. However, the military conflicts which have attracted most attention... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Signs of weaker global manufacturing in September Business surveys published today underline that growth in the euro-zone is slowing whereas the US economy remains strong. They also confirm that there has been a sharp slowdown in the UK’s... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed ending QE3 but global policy still loose Although the US Fed is set to announce the end of its asset purchases in late October, global monetary conditions should remain highly accommodative. 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Cheaper oil a net positive for global growth Rather than being a sign that global growth is faltering, the recent decline in international oil prices mainly reflects improving supply conditions. As such, it should provide a modest boost to... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth set to strengthen in Q3 A composite of the flash manufacturing PMIs released so far suggests that the pace of global growthaccelerated in the third quarter, despite more signs of weakness in the euro-zone and Japan. 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20: good intentions from down under Few analysts will be waking up early this weekend to read the communiqué from the gathering of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Cairns. It is likely to cover a lot of familiar... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
