Global Economics Update Partial recovery in oil prices ideal for world economy The recent pick-up in oil prices has the potential to develop into a “Goldilocks” scenario: prices high enough to keep most oil producers in business, but low enough to provide a substantial boost to... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Business surveys still painting a mixed picture Final manufacturing PMIs for January suggest that global growth may have stabilised. The outlook for the euro-zone has deteriorated and growth in China has slowed. But prospects for the US are bright... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are low freight costs signalling a wider slowdown? The latest fall in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), taking it to its lowest level since 1986, has added to concerns about the health of global demand. But the BDI is best viewed simply as a guide to the... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How hard will lower prices hit oil producers’ budgets? The collapse in oil prices will, of course, have a big negative impact on the fiscal positions of the world’s major oil producers. But countries with large fiscal buffers, including the Gulf economies... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update More to cheer than fear from “currency wars” The latest monetary easing in Europe and Asia has revived talk of “currency wars” and fuelled concerns about the impact of dollar strength on the US economy. But much of this talk seems unduly... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Rate cuts and ECB QE to keep conditions loose Any doubts about whether monetary conditions would remain ultra-loose this year have been put to rest by the ECB’s decision to launch “full-blown” QE and the wave of rate cuts implemented during the... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are falling inflation expectations a worrying omen? Market-based measures of inflation expectations have declined in the major advanced economies over the past few months. However, the economic risks posed by an extended period of very low inflation or... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global economy starts the year on a stronger footing Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs may be the first sign that the world economy is starting to reap the benefits of lower oil prices. They should also allay fears that the world economy is slipping into... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Which central banks will resist the policy-loosening trend? Central banks in several economies have loosened monetary policy this week and there is likely to be further easing to come. However, there are some exceptions among emerging markets, and we still... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF’s latest forecasts are still too optimistic The IMF’s latest forecasts for the world economy contain little new news because most of the changes reflect the Fund catching up with other forecasters since its last update in October. Although we... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we now worry about the fall in copper prices too? The sharp overnight fall in copper prices seems to have been driven by investor panic rather than a sudden deterioration in fundamentals and, as such, it could swiftly be reversed. Admittedly, copper... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How might debt restructuring by Greece affect the IMF? Whether or not Syriza forms its next government, Greece is unlikely to default on its bail-out loans from the IMF. However, if it does so, the political fallout for the IMF itself would be serious. 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why worry about deflation? The slump in the oil price means that headline inflation is likely to turn negative in the coming months in many advanced economies, just as it already has in the euro-zone. In general, deflation in... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World growth starts 2015 at slightly slower pace Business surveys indicate that global growth slowed further in December. But the slowdown was not as steep as suggested by some media reports, nor is it sufficient to justify the slump in oil prices... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fall in oil prices will radically alter global imbalances The collapse in oil prices looks set to wipe out the Gulf’s external surpluses next year, leaving China and the euro-zone as the world’s major surplus economies. At the same time, the US deficit looks... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A selection of key calls for 2015 and beyond We expect 2015 to be another year of large divergences in the performances of the advanced economies, with the US and the UK leading the pack and the euro-zone and Japan continuing to struggle. But... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
