Global Economics Update What chance of a new Plaza (or Shanghai) Accord? Recent financial market turmoil has prompted speculation that G20 finance ministers and central bank governors will discuss the merits of closer exchange rate coordination at their gathering in... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the monetary data pointing to global downturn? While some recent survey evidence has hinted that loan growth in the US may be about to slow, money and credit data in the four major advanced economies as a whole so far provide little support for... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we expect more monetary policy U-turns? Experience since 2009 shows that the current crop of central bankers do not hesitate to change course if they think that is the right thing to do. Indeed, central banks in numerous advanced economies... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Financial Crisis: Part III? The recent problems in many emerging markets have revived fears that the world is only now entering a ‘third leg’ of the global financial crisis (GFC) – the first being the meltdown in the sub-prime... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How low can policy rates go? The Bank of Japan last week became the fifth central bank to impose negative rates and we now expect it to lower its deposit rate to -0.7% by the end of this year. If policy eventually needed to be... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Business surveys for January provide further evidence that global economic activity is holding up well in contrast to fears of a sharp downturn. Growth in China slowed early last year, but appears to... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth slowed further in Q4, but is set to recover We estimate that world GDP growth fell below 2% annualised in Q4 2015, its slowest pace in over three years. But growth should rebound to 3% or so this year, as China, Japan and the US regain some... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How sustainable are public debt burdens? Over the past few years, the governments of most advanced economies have made a lot of progress in repairing the damage caused to their public finances by the global financial crisis. The majority... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the Baltic Dry Index a useful economic indicator? Another day, another record low for the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). However, while this measure of sea freight costs may be a helpful guide to the balance of supply and demand for certain commodities and... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Today’s Markit PMIs show manufacturing growth holding broadly steady in January, and provide no evidence of the collapse in economic activity that many seem to fear. 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to make of the IMF’s latest forecasts The IMF today downgraded its forecasts for global growth this year and next, leaving them closer to our own. It also stressed that prospects for China have not deteriorated markedly in recent months... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still supportive Broad money and private sector credit have continued expanding steadily in recent months. In advanced economies as a whole, credit has been growing rapidly while in emerging economies it has slowed... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are we due a global recession? Suggestions that the global recovery is likely to run out of steam simply because the business cycle is now quite mature look wide of the mark. Indeed, the recoveries in most G7 economies are still in... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How will lower oil prices affect monetary policy? Based on our new oil price forecasts we expect inflation in advanced economies to rise more gradually this year than previously anticipated. This will add to pressure for further policy loosening in... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How worried should we be about the renminbi? In our view, China is likely to keep its currency broadly stable in trade-weighted terms in the coming months. However, if there were a large, across-the-board devaluation of the renminbi the fallout... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The final Markit manufacturing PMIs for December, which were published today, suggest that momentum was slowing at the end of last year. The euro-zone gained a bit more momentum, but this was... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
