Global Economics Update Brexit vote clouds the outlook for trade agreements The UK referendum result may ultimately lead to the British government pursuing more liberal trade policies with the rest of the world. But progress is likely to be very slow. Meanwhile, the prospect... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will China worries resurface? We expect China’s economy to slow further next year and the renminbi to continue depreciating. Nonetheless, the risk of a “hard landing” or large currency devaluation is low, so China is unlikely to... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit is a local, not global, shock Developments over the past few days have revived concerns about the consequences of Brexit for theglobal economy. But they have not changed our view that the economic impact outside the UK and... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) Business surveys published today suggest that global manufacturing growth ticked up in June. Note, however, that almost all the survey responses were received before the UK’s vote to leave the EU. The... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update “Brexit” heralds even looser global monetary conditions The latest monetary data are consistent with a gradual slowdown in advanced economies, but do not point to a collapse in growth. Looking ahead, global central banks are likely to respond to the UK... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update “Brexit” is not a disaster for the world economy Once the dust has settled, the global economic implications of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union are likely to prove much less dramatic than many had suggested during the past few weeks. The... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Preliminary business surveys published today suggest that growth in advanced economies remained stable, but pretty weak, in June. 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How significant is the slide in inflation expectations? Many measures of inflation expectations are at, or close to, record lows. We do not think this means that the world as a whole is heading for a long period of very low inflation, or even deflation... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global monetary policy set to be even looser for longer Following the FOMC meeting earlier this week, we have lowered our forecasts for the fed funds rate at the end of 2017 and 2018. But two key themes remain unchanged: global monetary policy will... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are PMIs still the most useful measures of global growth? Although it is far from perfect, the global manufacturing PMI published by Markit seems to be the most reliable timely indicator of the strength of the world economy. It currently suggests that global... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Prospects for consumer spending remain fairly bright Global growth fears have re-emerged in recent weeks, but we think that prospects are still reasonably bright. In particular, conditions are in place for a period of steady, if unspectacular, growth in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are central bankers going soft on their inflation targets? It is often claimed that central bankers are less committed to their inflation targets than they were before the global financial crisis, but a closer look suggests that there has not been a dramatic... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (May) The final purchasing managers surveys for May show that manufacturers are struggling almost everywhere. The global manufacturing PMI, published by Markit earlier today, edged down to 50.0, extending a... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary aggregates and credit continue to expand steadily For all the talk of a sharp slowdown in the global economy this year, broad money and credit have been growing at a steady pace. In advanced economies as a whole, credit has increased by around 5% y/y... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four reasons for (cautious) optimism on the world economy In their declaration earlier today, G7 leaders claimed that “global growth is our urgent priority”. Promoting growth is a worthwhile aim but the implication that the world economy is on the brink of a... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Five quick points on Brent at $50 The recovery in oil prices should be a net positive for the global economy but is not without its downsides, including the support it might provide to the hawks at the Fed. 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
