Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Business surveys published earlier today paint a mixed picture of global manufacturing conditions. Activity in China appears to have stabilised, but the sharp fall in the US ISM index suggests, at... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Lending growth continues to recover Money and credit growth in the major advanced economies have held up remarkably well this year, despite overall economic growth remaining lacklustre. Indeed, lending to households is now expanding... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from Jackson Hole This week’s Jackson Hole conference is unlikely to shine much light on the immediate outlook formonetary policy either in the US or elsewhere. But it will underline how concerned many centralbankers... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Aug.) Preliminary survey data for August, which were published today, suggest that economic growth remained slow but steady in advanced economies. Meanwhile, alternative survey evidence for the UK has been... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Putting the global slowdown into perspective The global economy is set to expand by less than 3% for the second year running in 2016. That is a lot less than the 4%+ growth rates seen a decade ago. But in the grand sweep of history, current... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global imbalances to remain small by past standards The world’s main current account imbalances look set to widen a bit in the coming years but should not pose a serious threat to the global economy. Oil producers’ surpluses probably won’t reappear... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will wage growth ever pick up? Unemployment has continued to fall steadily in most advanced economies, but there is still some sparecapacity left. Moreover, the link between unemployment and wage growth is weaker than in the past... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) Business surveys published today suggest that global manufacturing growth picked upin July, bucking the near-continuous downward trend seen since 2013. 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth held up well in Q2 National accounts data released in recent weeks suggest that global growth edged up in Q2. Butprospects for the rest of the year are mixed. The euro-zone economy will probably slow further and theUK... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update QE to get a new lease of life? We expect the ECB and Bank of Japan to step up their asset purchases a bit in the coming months and the Bank of England (BoE) to resume its QE programme after a four-year break. Indeed, “global QE”... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global fallout from Brexit: one month on It is early days, but the limited data released since the EU referendum, as well as the reaction in financial markets, support our view that the economic implications of Brexit outside the UK will be... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jul.) Preliminary business surveys for July suggest that activity is contracting sharply in the UK following the Brexit vote. But there is no sign that other economies have been hit. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF changes its tune on Brexit Having spent the past few months warning that Brexit would cause “severe regional and global damage”, the IMF today all but admitted that it had been bluffing, and acknowledged that economic growth... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Austerity now all but over Fiscal policy in advanced economies is looser this year than last and may well be eased further in the years ahead. In Japan, policy makers are on the cusp of announcing a large supplementary budget... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit vote clouds the outlook for trade agreements The UK referendum result may ultimately lead to the British government pursuing more liberal trade policies with the rest of the world. But progress is likely to be very slow. Meanwhile, the prospect... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will China worries resurface? We expect China’s economy to slow further next year and the renminbi to continue depreciating. Nonetheless, the risk of a “hard landing” or large currency devaluation is low, so China is unlikely to... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
