Commodities Update PMIs rise but support for commodities to be short-lived Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs for China and the euro-zone have both improved, but they remain at relatively low levels. Other recent data suggest that China’s recovery still lacks momentum and that... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does Fed policy mean for commodities? The muted reaction to the Fed’s announcement yesterday supports our view that the boost to commodity prices from exceptionally loose US monetary policy has now largely run its course. The monetary... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does the surge in China's imports mean for rice? Mainland China’s net rice imports will have risen to record levels in 2012, whereas the country has traditionally been a net exporter. At first sight this might have been expected to have a major... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA report further eases supply fears The latest “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates” published today by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) has relieved concerns about the supply of wheat, whilst the prospects... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chavez's absence adds to the uncertainty in Venezuela Venezuelan economic policy looks set to remain in limbo until the future of the President Hugo Chávez is resolved. Devaluation of the bolivar, which we had expected early next year, may be delayed... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC decisions won’t prevent oil price falls This week’s OPEC meeting will be dominated by the tricky choice of a new Secretary-General, while the decision on output should be relatively simple. We agree with the consensus that the notional... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports disappoint Today’s Chinese trade data highlight the continued weakness in demand in the largest global consumer of commodities. The headline data did show commodity imports rising month-on-month but after... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s the right benchmark for US oil prices? The US Energy Information Administration’s recent decision to switch to Brent rather than West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as its reference oil price has reignited the debate about the appropriate... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Molybdenum: the Capital Economics view Molybdenum is being added to our coverage of industrial metals from today. We expect the molybdenum price to fall by at least another 10% next year, to $9.50 per pound ($21,000 per tonne), as Chinese... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Central America best placed to benefit from China shift After a decade of underperformance, we believe that growth in Central America will start to outpace that of South America over the coming years. Part of the reason for this is the changing... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will the US ever achieve energy independence? The rebound in domestic production of both crude oil and natural gas has led to increased speculation that America could become energy independent. The US will become progressively less reliant on oil... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Industrial metals recover, but upside looks limited Metals prices rallied in November, helped by the general improvement in market sentiment and some better economic data from China. However, global sentiment remains fragile and China’s recovery still... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch How large is the Middle East risk premium? This edition of our monthly Energy Watch takes a closer look at two hot topics in the oil market. The first is the size of the Middle East risk premium in the price of crude, which we believe to be at... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s happening to China’s unreported copper stocks? The conventional method of estimating China’s copper consumption has probably been exaggerating industrial demand for the red metal since the middle of 2011. This is because it does not allow for... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will Basel III affect the demand for gold? There is still widespread confusion and uncertainty over the impact that the Basel III regulations might have on the demand for gold. Gold is an “asset” rather than “capital” and therefore... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Can emerging economies get rich from commodities? History suggests that an abundance of natural resources makes broader economic development difficult for emerging markets (EMs). This is one reason why we believe that the non-commodity EMs of Asia... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
