Asia Economics Update Who is most vulnerable to high oil prices? India and Thailand would struggle most within Asia if oil prices were to remain at their current level. China is less reliant on oil than most in the region. In general, Asia’s strong growth would... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have oil prices already overshot? Another day, another $5 on the cost of a barrel of crude. At this rate it will not be long before prices revisit the highs above $140 seen in 2008. Given the pace at which markets are moving and... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil spike alone unlikely to cause a global recession The turmoil in the Middle East has prompted a chorus of warnings that the world economy could be dragged back into recession if the price of oil continues to climb. We were already expecting global... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What does the Libyan crisis mean for oil prices? Thus far we have taken a relatively sanguine view of the global economic and market fall-out from the political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa. The fact that the unrest has spread to... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Crisis in Egypt could keep food prices higher for longer Much of the coverage of the wider fall-out from the crisis in Egypt has focused on the potential impact on oil prices, but this threat to the global recovery is almost certainly exaggerated. Instead... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Oil prices another brake on the economic recovery The recent surge in the oil price to just shy of $100pb will act as yet another brake on the UK’s economic recovery this year just as the fiscal tightening is reaching its most intense phase. 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Chinese demand won't support commodity prices for ever Based on a plausible scenario for the evolution of the sustainable growth rate of the economy and the commodity-intensity of activity, China’s commodity demand in 2025 could be half the level that a... 15th December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Limited help for commodities from China The Chinese economy appears to be heading for a soft landing, but any support for global commodity prices is likely to be short-lived. 25th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What do higher commodity prices mean for the US? The recent sharp rises in agricultural commodity prices will boost inflation a little, help keep real consumption growth subdued and narrow the trade deficit. But the gains in prices seen so far are... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the markets running ahead of themselves? Asset prices of all types have surged following the announcement of additional QE from the US Fed, raising concerns about bubbles. The focus of these concerns has typically been on financial markets... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil prices to drop to $60pb in 2011 We continue to expect oil prices to fall back towards $60 per barrel (pb) by the end of next year as the dollar recovers and global demand ultimately disappoints, even though this would take them... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia to get a near-term boost from higher oil prices In light of the recent upward revision to our near-term profile for oil prices, we have pushed up our Russian growth and inflation forecasts for 2011. But the economy remains vulnerable to the fall in... 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Higher commodity prices to bring fresh set of policy challenges We have nudged up our near-term projections for commodity prices in response to recent rises and as a result have revisited our forecasts for Latin America. Growth is still likely to slow next year... 14th October 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Commodity super-cycle, or bubble? The recent strength in the prices of industrial metals and oil has revived talk of a “super-cycle” for these commodities where strong demand from emerging economies drives a multi-year bull market. We... 14th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: crunch time approaching for the CBR Russian banks have become more willing to lend in recent months. Much still depends on oil prices, but a strengthening banking sector raises the chances that the rapid expansion of the monetary base... 11th October 2010 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Fears of currency debasement buoy the euro The strength of the euro against the dollar in September coincided with a change in investors’ perceptions about the relative outlook for unconventional monetary policy on either side of the Atlantic... 6th October 2010 · 1 min read
