Commodities Focus "A year of two halves" The prices of industrial metals are likely to remain firm in the first half of the year, although we do not expect large gains. In the second half, most prices should drop back as the global economic... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strengthening global sentiment to support prices in Q1 Improving business conditions and confidence in financial markets should support higher prices for industrial commodities through the first quarter at least, but doubts remain about their... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do our new oil forecasts mean for Russia? Modest upward revisions to our (below consensus) forecast for oil prices this year do not radically alter our view on the economic outlook for Russia. The budget deficit is likely to be slightly... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Has the Saudi oil price target moved to $110? We continue to expect the price of a barrel of Brent to drop back below $100 this year, despite recent speculation that cuts to Saudi production signal an increased willingness to allow oil prices to... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts (Jan. 13) We have reviewed our key market forecasts. The new numbers are presented in the table on the next page. While we still expect government bond yields in the major developed economies to remain very low... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold set to regain premium to platinum later this year Substantial production cuts have been announced today by Anglo American Platinum, the world’s largest platinum producer. As a result, the price of platinum has risen above that of gold for the first... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain stocks lower but prices to stay on downward trend Wheat and corn prices have risen over recent days as the USDA revised down its projections for year-end stocks. However, we still expect prices to fall during 2013 as supply improves and the... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports lacklustre in December China’s imports of commodities continued to grow at a decent pace in 2012, setting new highs in many cases. However, the December data did not show much of an acceleration, with import volumes for... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Alumina: the Capital Economics view Alumina is being added to our coverage of commodities from today. We expect the price of alumina, as shown by the MB alumina index, to rise from around $330 per tonne (FOB Bunbury, Australia) at... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Rising oil and gas production to have small impact on GDP Even if US oil and gas production does continue to expand at the breakneck pace seen over the past few years, the overall impact on GDP growth will be muted. The mining sector as a whole accounted for... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Softening of Basel liquidity rules not such a big deal The expansion in the range of assets that can be used to meet the new liquidity requirements under Basel III, combined with their slower implementation, is a small positive for the banking sector, but... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Bullish headlines conceal underlying weaknesses The performances of many commodity prices have been more nuanced than the headlines might suggest. This is clearest in the case of agriculturals, where far more attention is still being paid to the... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is there any more upside for gold? The price of gold looks set to end 2012 on a low note, perhaps below $1,700 per ounce, but we continue to expect the precious metal to reach new record highs of at least $2,000 in 2013. The monetary... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rhodium: the Capital Economics view Rhodium is being added to our coverage of precious metals from today. Despite our expectations of a deep recession in the euro-zone and lacklustre growth elsewhere, we believe that the price of... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch The outlook for 2013 This edition of our monthly Energy Watch looks at the prospects for energy prices in 2013, focusing on crude oil, coal and US natural gas. We present some central forecasts, compare them to the... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Any major boost to GDP from shale gas still some way off As well as raising hopes about the UK’s future energy independence, the Government’s decision to allow “fracking” in the North West of England to recommence has fostered optimism that the UK economy... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
