Commodities Update China’s commodity imports flattered by temporary factors China’s imports of commodities recovered some ground in September after a poor August, aided by a seasonal pick-up in demand and restocking. However, there is little to suggest that this marks the... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA crop report suggests prices unsustainably high The gains in wheat, soybean and (especially) corn prices today may give the impression that the latest “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates” published by the United States Department for... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Macroeconomic backdrop for industrial metals to remain poor The impact of QE3 will be a major talking point during LME Week, which starts next Monday. However, even more purchases of relatively liquid US assets by the Fed will do nothing to address the... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Tokyo gatherings unlikely to amount to much Finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 meet tomorrow in Tokyo ahead of the annual gathering of the IMF and the World Bank there, which concludes on Sunday. Although these meetings can very... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador's oil-fired boom running out of steam The latest data confirm that Ecuador’s recent commodity boom has faded in 2012. With elections looming early next year, the main risk is that attempts to revive growth via looser fiscal policy will... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why is global aluminium output still rising? Despite aluminium prices on the LME having been below costs for many smelters for over a year, global aluminium production has risen due to record premiums, increased output in western China and... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran premium in oil prices set to fall The high cost of oil reflects hopes of a strong recovery in demand at least as much as fears of a military conflict between the West and Iran. However, the price of a barrel of Brent probably still... 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Boost from QE3 already starting to fade Confirmation of the launch of QE3 by the US Fed appears to have marked at least a temporary peak in many commodity prices, with the focus quickly returning to the underlying weaknesses in economic and... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch QE3 boost to be short-lived Rather than providing a further boost to oil prices, the announcement of open-ended quantitative easing (QE3) by the US Fed appears to have marked at least a temporary peak. The focus is already... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Soybeans paper over cracks in Argentina’s growth model The rise in soybean prices since early June will limit any further downside to Argentine growth but is unlikely to set the economy up for the rapid rebound that many are predicting. In the absence of... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More downside for soybean prices than most expect We have revised our near-term soybean price forecasts higher to reflect the ongoing support from lower US supplies. However, this support should fade as the focus moves on to the prospect of a record... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally looks overdone The recent surge in the Canadian dollar coincides neatly with the general rally in equity and commodity markets. The economic fundamentals that would typically justify this movement, however, are... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will higher commodity prices offset the benefits of QE3? The recent decline in oil prices supports our view that a third round of quantitative easing from the US Fed is unlikely to cause global inflation to take off. Unfortunately, the boost to economic... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Light at the end of the tunnel After two years of turmoil, there is light at the end of the tunnel for some of the resource-poor Arab economies. But a recovery is unlikely to start until 2014 at the earliest. Next year, most of... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak PMIs provide another reality check With the boost to commodity prices from global policy stimulus already fading, the continued weakness of the flash manufacturing PMIs for China and the euro-zone is a timely reminder of the poor... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Rice prices to fall further as Thai exports recover Thailand’s exports of rice in 2012/13 are likely to be some 20-40% higher than the latest estimates for 2011/12. This should enable Thailand to regain its position as the world’s top rice exporting... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
