UK Economics Weekly Squeeze on real incomes to last even longer Hopes that a summer packed full of sporting and cultural events would boost consumer spending have been dampened by the weaker run of data over the past week or so. What’s more, the recent rise in... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Oil and coal prices face multitude of downside risks Oil prices have been boosted by hopes of additional global policy stimulus and fears of a worsening of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but we expect these supports to be shortlived. Possible... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Aug.) On the back of ample liquidity, scarce supply and low interest rates, highly-rated bond markets in the oil-rich Gulf should continue to outperform other Middle Eastern assets in the coming months... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack IMF comes to the rescue Concerns over the balance of payments positions of some of the resource-poor Arab countries have faded as Morocco and Jordan have secured funding from the IMF. The recent surge in global agricultural... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Export restrictions to have little impact on wheat prices? We believe that fears of a reduction in wheat exports from the Black Sea region are overdone. We do not think that an outright ban is likely either from Russia or Ukraine. Any other forms of export... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Talk of return to Gold Standard to come to nothing Reports that the Republican Party will call for the establishment of a commission to examine the case for restoring the link between the dollar and gold may be another positive for the price of the... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The market implications of QE3 The US Fed looks set to launch QE3 soon, but a third injection of the same medicine is unlikely to be anywhere near as effective as the first two in supporting the prices of equities or commodities... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMI adds to worries about commodities demand China’s flash manufacturing PMI has dropped to its lowest level this year. So far today the impact on commodity prices has been trumped by hopes of further quantitative easing from the US Fed. However... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rise in energy prices unlikely to prevent more stimulus The recent reversal of the 25% or so fall in oil prices earlier this year and the prospect of another round of utility price rises might now mean that CPI inflation struggles to fall below the 2%... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Surging agricultural prices small net positive for economy While the drought threatening US farmers' crops has led to a surge in agricultural crop prices, many farmers in Western Canada are thankfully anticipating a return to normal production and in some... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent still likely to end the year below $100 We have revised our near-term forecasts for the price of Brent crude higher to reflect the ongoing support from hopes of global policy stimulus and fears over tensions in the Middle East. However... 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fall in ethanol demand to relieve tightness in US corn The near-term prospects for US corn prices depend on an improvement in the weather. However, corn prices could also be dragged lower by a reduction in demand for biofuels – due both to a renewed... 20th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Olympics to help sales maintain momentum After a slow start, it looks like the Olympic Games have provided a reasonable boost to high street spending. 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What do higher commodity prices mean for the Arab world? The rapid rise in global commodity prices over the past two months has raised fresh fears over food inflation in most Arab countries. But we think that the bigger concern could be the balance of... 15th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update No need to worry about food inflation just yet The pick-up in food inflation in Emerging Europe is likely to raise fears that the recent spike in global agricultural prices is starting to hit the region. There is a fair amount of uncertainty, but... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Drought a small, but unhelpful, drain on growth The loss of corn and soybean crops caused by the drought may reduce annual GDP growth by less than 0.1%. The drought is therefore not a disaster for the wider economy. But it doesn’t help when the... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
