Commodities Update Manufacturing PMIs drag commodities lower The Chinese and euro-zone flash manufacturing PMIs both fell in June. China’s economy should pick up again in the second half of the year but the slump in commodity prices has further to run. 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Coal prices have further to fall The recent weakness of global coal prices is relatively easy to explain, as it reflects a straightforward mix of surging supply, sluggish economic activity, falling oil prices and the boom in the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA’s estimates consistent with lower grain prices The United States Department for Agriculture’s (USDA) latest estimates for 2012/13 indicate a further marginal increase in both the global corn and soybean end stocks. This is consistent with our... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Saudi's $100 "target" won't set a floor on oil prices OPEC is almost certain to maintain its official output ceiling at 30 million barrels per day (bpd) at its meeting on Thursday. This decision would not preclude some cuts in production in the coming... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports rebound China’s imports of commodities were surprisingly strong in May. The figures were probably flattered by the temporary closures of customs offices in the previous month and by some commodity-specific... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Wheat prices to fall 20% as weather concerns ease Wheat prices have been very volatile recently due to uncertainty over the crops in key producing countries such as the US and Russia. Unfavourable weather may indeed reduce the global harvest compared... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Hints of policy support don’t change the bigger picture Commodity prices have regained some ground this week on hopes of additional policy stimulus. However, actions speak louder than words. With the exception of widely anticipated rate cuts in China, the... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts We have revised some of our key market forecasts for government bonds, equities, commodities and currencies. The new forecasts are presented in the table at the bottom of this page. The major changes... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More price falls to come, led by oil Other analysts are reportedly “shell-shocked” by the sharp declines in the prices of oil and other commodities in May, but we had already been braced for the fall-out from an escalation of the crisis... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack May's meltdown The prices of industrial and agricultural commodities were hit hard in May by the escalating crisis in the euro-zone and worries over demand from China (as we had anticipated). In particular, oil fell... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Easing Iran tensions to undermine oil prices further Concerns about the crisis in the euro-zone, fears of a “hard landing” in China and weaker data in the US have displaced tensions with Iran as the main driver of global oil prices. Nonetheless, a... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would a Greek euro exit mean for commodities? Our central forecasts for industrial commodity prices already reflect some of the potential fall-out from a Greek euro exit. In particular, the economic and financial uncertainty is one of several... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower petrol prices to add some fuel to consumer recovery The recent fall in oil prices should, if maintained, bring petrol prices down by enough to boost consumers’ annual disposable incomes by about 0.2%. However, this will not be enough to stop real pay... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Where is the safe haven demand for gold? The price of gold has dropped sharply in recent days and is barely changed in 2012 to date. The fact that gold has struggled despite the worsening crisis in Europe has added to doubts about its status... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports drop back Chinese commodity imports have been undermined by weak industrial demand and high stockpiles. We expect these factors to continue to put downward pressure on commodity prices. 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent on course to end year below $100 Crude oil prices have remained weak after last week’s sharp falls, largely due to concerns over the US economy and the escalating problems in Europe. We expect these pressures to ebb and flow over the... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
