Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain lacklustre Hopes of a swift rebound in Chinese commodity imports were dashed by today’s trade data which have sent commodity prices lower. We expect this to be a recurring theme as any rebound in China’s economy... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Corn prices are poised to fall US corn production estimates published today by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) were revised down sharply. However, this was largely anticipated by the market, and was mainly... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Where do we see grains prices heading? The current elevated levels of grains prices probably already reflect the worst possible outcome for US harvests. In the absence of any further adverse weather shocks, we believe that the prices of... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lower commodity prices would expose the region’s laggards The whole of Latin America would be worse off as a result of lower commodity prices, but sharp falls would exacerbate clear divisions in the growth outlook within the region. Chile, Colombia and Peru... 7th August 2012 · 1 min read
No respite in sight The short-term outlook for economic growth across the euro-zone is poor. All member states are likely to contract in 2013, if not 2012. The recession in the euro-zone will also act as a major drag on... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower tin output will not be enough to stop price decline Falling global demand for tin, due to slower economic growth, thrifting and substitution, means we expect tin prices to drop from $17,900 per tonne today to around $16,500 by the end of 2013 despite... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Euro break-up should be a game-changer for gold We expect the exit of one or more countries from the euro-zone to drive the price of gold significantly higher. For now, the precious metal is losing out to other safe havens, notably the US dollar... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prospects for global demand continue to dim The further falls in the global manufacturing PMIs and the Baltic Dry Index underline the fragility of global demand and the downside risks to the prices of industrial commodities. Against this... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Peruvian inflation? The key question for Peruvian policymakers is not so much ‘will inflation continue to fall back in 2012?’, but rather ‘will the recent spike in grains prices trigger a rebound in 2013?’. Although we... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Holding out for a hero Commodity markets appear to be banking on some unlikely heroes among policy-makers to turn the global economy around quickly and save the euro. However, with midnight fast approaching, any action has... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Recovery in oil prices is poorly supported The partial recovery in oil prices over the last month is based on shaky ground. An immediate meltdown in the euro-zone may have been averted, but Europe is sliding into a deep recession and the risks... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Syrian crisis: are fears of oil supply disruptions justified? The increase in oil prices over the past few weeks has been partly blamed on the escalation in tensions in Syria, which has raised fresh concerns of supply disruptions. But unless the Syrian crisis... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Spring slowdown flows into summer The economic slowdown that began in the spring months has continued into the summer. We estimate that GDP grew at an annualised rate of around 1.5% in the second quarter, down from 1.9% in the first... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Drought not much of a drain on US economy The drought in parts of America is unlikely to have a major economic impact. At most, the resulting rise in agricultural commodity prices will reverse only a small part of the recent fall in inflation... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Pick-up in China’s PMI not enough for a commodities rally The continued deterioration in the euro-zone economy, as highlighted by today’s weakening manufacturing PMI, is likely to drag commodity prices markedly lower despite a small improvement in Chinese... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Pick-up in China's PMI not enough for a commodities rally The continued deterioration in the euro-zone economy, as highlighted by today’s weakening manufacturing PMI, is likely to drag commodity prices markedly lower despite a small improvement in Chinese... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
