Global Markets Update Commodities – beware the dragon’s burp The need to feed the supposedly insatiable demand of the Chinese economic dragon is frequently cited as a reason to expect ever-higher commodity prices. However, investors also need to beware of the... 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How credible is OPEC's new oil price target? OPEC’s informal target of $75-80 per barrel (pb) might be a reasonable starting point for an assumption about the medium-term outlook for oil prices, but it is certainly not the last word. Our view is... 28th May 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus A chill wind blows east We expect the Emerging European economy to shrink by 3% this year, with no meaningful recovery until 2011. What’s more, further IMF bailouts look likely over the coming months as a number of the... 29th January 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus What impact has speculation had on commodity prices? Commodity prices across all major classes have experienced three distinct phases: first, a period of prolonged broad price stability, followed by sharp rises in prices, and then sharp falls. Changes... 22nd December 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for oil prices? Many of the most enthusiastic cheerleaders for the commodity bubble have recently slashed their oil price forecasts. We are still happy with our long-held view that crude will average $50 per barrel... 12th December 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How low could oil prices go? Oil prices have fallen to within a whisker of our target of $50 per barrel (for Brent), which we had expected to see in the first quarter of next year. For now we are leaving our forecast for average... 13th November 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus How much has speculation driven commodity prices? This piece looks at several aspects of commodity market speculation that are often invoked to support the conventional wisdom which asserts that speculation has not been a driving factor in commodity... 3rd November 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update OPEC cuts, but markets take little notice Today’s sharp fall in oil prices, despite the announcement that OPEC will cut production by 1.5 million barrels per day from 1st November, reinforces our view that prices will continue to decline even... 24th October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update New forecasts for currencies and commodities The recent acceleration in the dollar’s appreciation against other major currencies (with the notable exception of the yen) reflects a combination of factors, none of which is likely to reverse any... 22nd October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New forecasts for currencies and commodities The recent acceleration in the dollar’s appreciation against other major currencies (with the notable exception of the yen) reflects a combination of factors, none of which is likely to reverse any... 22nd October 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for currencies and commodities The recent acceleration in the dollar’s appreciation against other major currencies (with the notable exception of the yen) reflects a combination of factors, none of which is likely to reverse any... 22nd October 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update OPEC output cuts to provide limited support for oil prices The collapse in oil prices in recent days has likely sent OPEC into a panic. The oil-producing cartel has advanced the timing of its “extraordinary” meeting from the 18th November to next Friday... 17th October 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Will falling oil prices halt Russia's boom? We now expect real GDP growth in Russia to slow to 5% next year. But contrary to popular belief, this will not be driven by a fall in oil prices, which we now expect to fall to around $70pb over the... 10th October 2008 · 1 min read
