Commodities Update Saudi reports add to downward pressure on oil prices Reports that Saudi Arabia is ready to increase oil supplies may be little new but they support our view that prices are set to fall sharply. As it happens, the Gulf state has already ramped up... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Higher oil output to provide a boost to Saudi growth Saudi Arabia’s recent commitment to maintain oil output at record levels means that our forecast for GDP growth this year is looking too pessimistic. We now expect the economy to expand by around 4.5%... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Would the US go it alone with an oil stock release? Oil prices are likely to fall back without the need for the release of emergency reserves as optimism about the impact of global policy stimulus fades and demand remains weak. But if prices do rise... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Will policy stimulus provide a lasting boost to commodity prices? The recent announcements of additional stimulus in the euro-zone, China and the US might prove to be a turning point for the global economy, thus justifying and even extending the recovery in... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Gulf to remain net oil exporter for many years to come We don’t agree with recent reports suggesting that some of the major hydrocarbon producers in the Gulf are likely to become net oil importers within the next two decades. Instead, we think that a... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Gulf’s bond rally last? The impressive rally in dollar-denominated bond markets across the GCC over the past year has seen yields in Qatar and Abu Dhabi hit record lows in recent months, while even those in debt-ridden Dubai... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's "stimulus" does not justify higher metals prices The prices of metals and ores, particularly iron, have been boosted over the past few days by reports that China has approved a large number of infrastructure projects. However, a closer look confirms... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Corn prices to fall further as US harvest not as bad as feared The highlight from the “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates”, published today by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA), is a smaller than expected downward revision to the US... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slump in iron ore prices suggests copper prices far too high Even after the slight recovery in the last few days, the price of iron ore has fallen by a third in the last two months. While the unusual contrast with the strength of copper prices can partly be... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tariff cuts to keep Brazilian inflation from accelerating According to our estimates, the cuts in electricity tariffs announced by Brazil’s government last week should broadly offset any pick-up in food inflation that is likely to follow the recent spike in... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's weak commodity imports show fragility of demand Today’s Chinese trade data highlight the continued weakness in demand in the largest global consumer of commodities. Markets have taken some comfort from the increased likelihood of additional... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What will bring oil prices back down again? A coordinated release of official stocks is one possible trigger for a correction in oil prices, but we still think that it is neither imminent nor necessary. A more realistic assessment of the... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will silver continue to outperform gold? The dollar price of silver has risen by around 16% since the middle of August, fuelled by the prospects of QE3 and hopes of a stronger industrial recovery, outperforming gold’s 6% increase. However... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian economy will cool further Australia’s economy slowed to close to its trend rate in the second quarter, after an unsustainable surge in mining investment drove strong growth in Q1. Although growth is likely to weaken again in... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Oil prices to fall with or without use of strategic reserves There has been fresh speculation that the major oil-consuming nations will shortly announce another release of crude stocks from official reserves, coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA)... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Support from QE3 to be short-lived Commodity prices were supported in August by expectations of additional quantitative easing in the US, but economic activity has remained weak or even worsened. Yet more purchases of US Treasuries or... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
