Global Economics Focus Global growth prospects beyond 2020 Some commentators argue that growth of world per capita income over the coming few decades will be much lower than in the past, because technological progress has slowed or because of the depletion of... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs improve but remain at low levels Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs for China and the euro-zone have both risen and appear to have sent commodity prices slightly higher. However, the former only points to a weak recovery in China while... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update East African energy boom comes with risks Discoveries of giant gas fields off the coast of East Africa in the past few months are likely to have a very positive impact on the economies of Mozambique and Tanzania. But while both countries... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The global fall-out from Middle East tensions The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas has contributed to the recent resilience of oil prices and the fragility of equities. The avoidance of a full-scale ground war in Gaza might... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Platinum floor prices higher but downside risks still dominate Labour unrest in South Africa, the dominant global producer of platinum, has raised the floor for platinum prices and should limit their downside in 2013. This is despite the prospect of continued... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Middle East break-evens won’t set a floor on oil prices The recent increases in the level of the oil price required to balance government budgets for the major Gulf producers are often cited as a reason to expect the cost of crude to remain high. In... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we worry about pork prices again? A new government scheme to stabilise China’s volatile pork market appears to be succeeding. As a result, the re-emergence of pork-driven inflation that some have started to warn about is unlikely to... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will the US become the world's top oil producer? The likelihood that the US will become the world’s largest oil producer by the end of the decade is not the game-changer that it may first appear. Total oil output in the US has already surged to a... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports boosted by oil A rebound in China’s imports of oil in October flatters the state of underlying commodity demand. The current improvement in economic activity is unlikely to lead to a similar rebound in overall... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA report should ease fears over grain prices The latest “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates” published today by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) appear to have calmed the markets, and rightly so. In particular... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ukraine wheat export “ban” remains a sideshow The ongoing debate over whether or not Ukraine is set to ban wheat exports misses the bigger points that (i) Ukraine has already exported almost all of the grain it was expected to this year, and (ii)... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How "good" economic data can be "bad" for commodities The slide in commodity prices today following the release of an apparently strong US Employment Report underlines their sensitivity to expectations of further monetary support. As it happens, the pace... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Prices start to fall to more sustainable levels Commodity prices mostly declined last month, led by the industrial metals most sensitive to macroeconomic and financial conditions. The main exception was US natural gas, whose price recovered further... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Romney vs. Obama: energy policies compared The differences between the energy policies of US President Obama and his equally worthy rival Mitt Romney are largely ones of rhetoric and emphasis rather than substance. Oil prices might fall a... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Has China helped or hurt emerging economies? China’s development has had a significant impact on emerging market growth, and not all economies have unambiguously benefitted. Even countries that have made the most of Chinese demand may find... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook A renewed struggle in store for risky assets The boost to risky assets from QE3 may already be over. The prices of equities and commodities have generally fallen since mid-September. And while the ECB brought the euro-zone back from the brink in... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
