Commodities Update PMIs provide reality check on strength of global recovery The decline in the flash manufacturing PMI for China in February, reported today, is the latest sign that the pick-up in global manufacturing may be faltering. The equivalent US and euro-zone data... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper supply (finally) surges Global copper mine supply grew at its fastest rate in eight years in the closing months of 2012 and mine output is likely to grow just as quickly this year. This should enable smelters to raise their... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Equity market rally loses steam Following a strong start to the year, the rally in sub-Saharan African equity markets has lost a little steam in the past few weeks. Nevertheless, the MSCI frontier Africa index is still up by around... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angolan oil boom masks medium-term deficiencies A boom in oil production should ensure that economic growth in Angola remains strong over the next two years. But an overreliance on the hydrocarbons sector, coupled with perennial concerns over... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can Brent spreads be justified by fundamentals? The spreads between the prices of Brent and other crude benchmarks such as WTI and Dubai have recently widened to levels which are hard to justify on the basis of underlying supply and demand. This... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Too soon to call the bottom of the sugar market Even though the global price has already slumped by around a third over the last two years, sugar has been the worst performing of the major agricultural commodities so far in 2013, falling by another... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will the recovery in cotton prices be sustained? The price of cotton, which fell by around 20% in 2012, has turned around to become the best performing of the major agricultural commodities so far this year, rising by about 10%. This recovery has... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is it time to give up on commodities? It has taken two years of dismal returns and a regulatory backlash, but the consensus has finally swung round to our long-held scepticism about the “super-cycle” and the diversification benefits of... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports flattered by timing of New Year The value of China’s commodity imports rose y/y in January at their fastest rate since October but this may well have been due to the distortions caused by the timing of the lunar New Year as much as... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tensions with Iran to keep oil prices high for longer The high cost of oil reflects hopes of a strong recovery in demand at least as much as tensions in the Middle East. However, the price of a barrel of Brent probably still includes a premium of $10-15... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sustained recovery in BDI still some way off One commodity-related indicator that has failed to show any signs of a revival is the Baltic Dry Index of global shipping costs, which remains more than 90% below its pre-crisis peak. Indeed, the BDI... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Gains unlikely to be sustained throughout 2013 Improving business conditions and the positive sentiment in financial markets should support the prices of industrial metals and crude oil at least for the remainder of the first quarter and possibly... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook A see-saw year ahead for risky assets We now think risky assets will generally fare quite well in the first half of 2013, as tension in the euro-zone continues to ease and the Fed expands its balance sheet further. We expect these factors... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Risks to oil prices remain on the downside The improvements in global economic conditions indicated by the latest manufacturing surveys, as well as the positive mood in financial markets, have already prompted us to revise our near-term oil... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Jan.) The Egyptian pound has fallen sharply over the past month after the Central Bank of Egypt loosened its grip on the currency. We think the pound could fall by a further 10-15% to around 7.5/US$... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lumber: the Capital Economics view Lumber, or sawn timber as it is also known, is being added to our coverage of agriculturals from today. Despite a sharp rise in lumber prices last year and our expectations of only a lacklustre... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
