Emerging Europe Economics Update Downside risks to oil mean ruble trouble here to stay Today’s slide in the ruble is all the more surprising given that oil prices have been rising over the past few weeks. With oil prices still likely to fall over the next year, we are sticking to our... 16th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Food price rises shouldn’t prompt policy changes Tomorrow’s inflation figures are likely to show that a further rise in food prices stopped headline inflation from falling more sharply – or at all – in August. However, we doubt that rising food... 13th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What's happening to China's commodity demand? The recent import data suggest that China’s demand for industrial metals and for oil has levelled out this year after a sharp rebound in 2009. This is consistent with other evidence that China’s... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine makes the right move on gas prices Today’s announcement that Ukraine will raise consumer gas prices by as much as 50% from 1st August suggests that the government is serious about the reforms needed to keep the country’s IMF programme... 14th July 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for commodities? The sharp falls in many commodity prices over the past month reflect a mix of pressures and worries, some of which are temporary but most of which are not. We continue to expect further falls by the... 20th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of China’s surging copper imports? The surge in China’s copper imports last month has been taken by some as evidence that final demand is booming. But with inventories at unprecedented levels, import demand looks set to tail off again. 29th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas deal boosts prospects in Ukraine, but risks remain Today’s gas deal with Russia is undoubtedly a boost for the Ukrainian economy’s near-term prospects, and keeps it on course for an impressive bounce back this year. But with the new government yet to... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices still set to drag on Russian recovery We have nudged up our forecast for Russian growth and the ruble for this year, partly in response to an upward revision to our profile for oil prices. But the bigger picture is that we still expect... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil prices still set to drop back in the second half The fact that oil prices have remained firm despite the appreciation in the dollar has prompted us to raise our end-2010 and end-2011 forecasts from $50 per barrel (pb) to $60pb. But these numbers are... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil prices to fall back to $50pb by end-2010 The current pick-up in headline inflation in the major economies is largely due to adverse base effects in energy prices. These base effects will fade soon even if oil prices now simply level out at... 16th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What is happening to Chinese commodity demand? Soaring inventories and falling imports are strong signs that the supply of many industrial metals in China far exceeds final demand. Needless to say, this reinforces our scepticism about the current... 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is happening to Chinese commodity demand? Soaring inventories and falling imports are strong signs that the supply of many industrial metals in China far exceeds final demand. Needless to say, this reinforces our scepticism about the current... 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Commodity currencies facing headwinds Expectations have been growing that the central banks of Canada, Norway and New Zealand will soon join Australia on what is thought to be a prolonged tightening cycle. This has been supporting the... 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does it matter which currency oil is priced in? The re-pricing of oil in some unit other than the dollar should, on its own, have no direct effect on the value of the US currency. It might accelerate the rebalancing of official reserves away from... 12th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gas is too cheap relative to oil We expect further falls in US natural gas prices in the near term. However, the incentive for end-users to substitute gas for oil has rarely been higher, which will eventually feed through to higher... 20th August 2009 · 1 min read
