QE3 boost to be short-lived

Rather than providing a further boost to oil prices, the announcement of open-ended quantitative easing (QE3) by the US Fed appears to have marked at least a temporary peak. The focus is already returning to the deterioration in economic conditions that made additional stimulus necessary in the first place. Fears of an escalation of tensions between the West and Iran continue to provide some support for prices, but this has been offset by talk of releases from emergency reserves and offers of increased supply from Saudi Arabia. Overall, we continue to expect Brent to average well below $100 per barrel in 2013.