Commodities Update Aluminium prices heading back towards $2,000 The price of aluminium has already fallen by around 7% this month, from the cyclical high of nearly $2,800 to around $2,600 per tonne, as part of the global commodity rout. We expect further... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What next for commodity prices? Last week’s rout in commodity prices may have been exaggerated by special factors but the falls were mostly consistent with our view of the economic fundamentals. Rather than being in the early stages... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Inflation fears to fade as commodity prices slide This week’s sharp falls in commodity prices of all types may have been exaggerated by wild speculation but are mostly consistent with our view of the economic fundamentals. 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Risks shifting to the downside This week’s sharp falls in commodity prices of all types may have been exaggerated by wild speculation but are mostly consistent with our view of the economic fundamentals. 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy vulnerable to a commodities correction Sharply higher commodity prices and a runaway Canadian currency are boosting Canada's terms of trade, a key source of growth in incomes and therefore domestic spending. In some cases, specific... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook The end of QE2 – expect the unexpected As growth slows and inflation subsides, expectations of higher interest rates in the major developed economies should be scaled back significantly. The end of QE2 in the US should neither rattle... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: No sign of a boost from higher oil prices... yet Higher oil prices have not yet fed through to a pick-up in the Russian economy. In fact, if anything the annual rate of GDP growth appears to have slowed in Q1. 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Commodity prices drive abrupt rebalancing of China's trade High commodity prices have achieved what the last Five-Year Plan and a string of summits with key trading partners could not: a rebalancing of Chinese trade. In this China Watch we consider the... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus How does Russia benefit from higher oil prices? If the recent spike in oil prices is sustained, it could add as much as 1.5% to real GDP growth in Russia this year. But while higher commodity prices may boost growth in the near term, they work... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What does $100pb oil mean for the US? The rise in the price of oil to above $100 per barrel (pb) will not send the economy back into a recession or push the Fed much closer to tightening policy. Relative to our existing forecasts, the... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the winners and losers from the oil price spike The recent spike in oil prices will impact on different economies within Latin America in different ways. Although it is difficult to say with any great precision, the biggest winner is likely to be... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Oil price rise comes at a bad time The rise in oil prices has raised fears about the prospects for the economic recovery. Obviously the economy has changed a great deal since the oil price shocks of the 1970s, when sharp oil price... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Dollar continues to languish Investors have become more convinced about the prospect of tighter monetary policy in Europe in response to upward pressure on headline inflation and some reasonably encouraging economic news. One... 4th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How does this oil price spike compare with history? The current spike in oil prices has inevitably led to comparisons with other episodes when prices have surged over a relatively short period. The last five such episodes were all followed by global... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Oil prices compound inflation concerns Markets are concerned that rising oil prices will lift inflation and hit economic growth in Asia. Relative to their economies, Korea and Taiwan are the biggest net oil importers within the region but... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Another headwind Japan could do without We expect the latest spike in oil prices to be short-lived as fears over supply from the Middle East and North Africa start to ease. Nonetheless, Japanese inflation will pick up further in the coming... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
