Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Oil-poor countries could still outperform in the long term The economic prospects for some of the resource-poor Arab countries are brighter than their current conditions suggest. Although political transitions are proving difficult, we still think that they... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Lower oil price will not boost euro-zone growth The recent sharp fall in the oil price has prompted us to revise down our euro-zone CPI inflation forecast for this year and next. But this will not prevent the region from falling into a deep... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Are lower oil prices a blessing for Asia? The recent collapse in oil prices will help most Asian economies, with oil-intensive Thailand and India benefiting the most. The trouble though is that oil prices are falling because the global... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Plunging gasoline prices to fuel real consumption A further fall in gasoline prices to close to $3 a gallon, from a recent peak of $4, will provide a near-term kick to real consumption growth just at a time when it appears to be fading fast. But a... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What do falling commodity prices mean for Australia? Sharp falls in commodity prices over recent weeks have raised questions over the sustainability of Australia’s mining investment boom. On the plus side, the struggling non-mining parts of the economy... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Collapse in oil prices will not save world economy The slump in oil prices results from faltering global demand and growing fears of an escalation of the euro-zone crisis. As such, it is wishful thinking to imagine that cheap oil can itself generate a... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Where next for oil prices? The $30 slump since early May, which has taken Brent below $90 per barrel (pb), suggests that the global benchmark oil price could hit our end-2012 target of $85 even sooner than we had anticipated... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Manufacturing PMIs drag commodities lower The Chinese and euro-zone flash manufacturing PMIs both fell in June. China’s economy should pick up again in the second half of the year but the slump in commodity prices has further to run. 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Coal prices have further to fall The recent weakness of global coal prices is relatively easy to explain, as it reflects a straightforward mix of surging supply, sluggish economic activity, falling oil prices and the boom in the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA’s estimates consistent with lower grain prices The United States Department for Agriculture’s (USDA) latest estimates for 2012/13 indicate a further marginal increase in both the global corn and soybean end stocks. This is consistent with our... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Saudi's $100 "target" won't set a floor on oil prices OPEC is almost certain to maintain its official output ceiling at 30 million barrels per day (bpd) at its meeting on Thursday. This decision would not preclude some cuts in production in the coming... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports rebound China’s imports of commodities were surprisingly strong in May. The figures were probably flattered by the temporary closures of customs offices in the previous month and by some commodity-specific... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Wheat prices to fall 20% as weather concerns ease Wheat prices have been very volatile recently due to uncertainty over the crops in key producing countries such as the US and Russia. Unfavourable weather may indeed reduce the global harvest compared... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Hints of policy support don’t change the bigger picture Commodity prices have regained some ground this week on hopes of additional policy stimulus. However, actions speak louder than words. With the exception of widely anticipated rate cuts in China, the... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts We have revised some of our key market forecasts for government bonds, equities, commodities and currencies. The new forecasts are presented in the table at the bottom of this page. The major changes... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More price falls to come, led by oil Other analysts are reportedly “shell-shocked” by the sharp declines in the prices of oil and other commodities in May, but we had already been braced for the fall-out from an escalation of the crisis... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
