Emerging Europe Economics Update Gazprom’s China deal not a game changer for Russia’s economy The benefits to the Russian economy from the $400bn deal signed earlier today between Russia and China are likely to be smaller than most seem to think. Instead, the importance of the deal is largely... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee prices set to cool The price of Arabica coffee has soared this year as the market looks likely to fall into deficit after four years of excess production. However, stocks are high and there is a huge risk premium in... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cocoa prices will fall unless El Niño disrupts production We expect cocoa prices to fall back in 2014-15 as market expectations of surging consumption growth appear misplaced. Indeed, we expect the market to return to a small surplus in 2013/14 after two... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update All oils are not created equal The surge in US oil stocks on the Gulf coast means that the pipeline constraints which had been holding back the price of WTI now look largely to have been resolved. However, excess supplies of light... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Something has got to give in the global steel industry A sharp increase in US steel imports from Asia in the first quarter serves to highlight the overcapacity and overproduction of Asia’s steel industries. Surplus Asian output is undermining the global... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean supply set to be more than ample this year The latest WASDE report, released on Friday, supports our view that supplies of grains and soybeans are likely to be abundant this season. This should lead to sharp prices falls, especially of... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Surprising apathy in the platinum market Compared to those of other metals facing supply disruption, platinum prices have been relatively unresponsive and traded in a narrow range. Nonetheless, we believe that strong demand growth and... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Surge in China's soybean imports likely to be unsustainable China’s imports of key commodities grew strongly again last month despite lacklustre industrial activity. However, the growth mainly reflects temporary factors such as earlier shipments from Brazil... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Dwindling supply growth will ultimately support lead prices We expect lead prices to fall in the near term, reflecting concerns about the outlook for China’s demand and a relatively comfortable stock position. However, the market is likely to fall into deficit... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update El Niño to have limited impact on real economy The El Niño weather event that is expected later this year may cause some localised disruptions, but it is unlikely to have a marked impact on overall economic activity in the region. 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Nickel prices may have risen too far, too soon As of end-April, nickel prices had risen 32% since the beginning of 2014, defying the otherwise downward trend in industrial metals prices. The catalyst was a ban on ore exports by Indonesia... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Steady as she goes We forecast a fairly small rise in the 10-year US government bond yield by end-2015 despite a shift in Fed policy. We also think the BoE will raise rates later and more slowly than the US central bank... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Low stocks will put upward pressure on US natural gas prices Extremely low levels of natural gas stocks in the US are likely to put upward pressure on prices over the rest of this year and potentially even into 2015. 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply fears underpin commodity prices Many commodity prices rose in April, boosted by supply concerns around industrial metals, agricultural commodities and crude oil. In particular, the price of coffee surged again after early harvests... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper hasn't yet bottomed The unwinding of financing deals in China that use copper as collateral is set to add to the downward pressures on prices from a further slowdown in China’s economy, led by the property sector. We... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six questions and answers on the Ukraine crisis We have already written extensively on the crisis in Ukraine and its potential economic and market impacts. (The most relevant publications are listed on page 2.) But as the crisis is back in the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
