Commodities Update Commodities look to stronger GDP growth for comfort Commodity prices initially appeared to have shrugged off the recent sell-off in emerging market (EM) assets, perhaps focussing on the fact that Fed tapering depends on a continued pick-up in economic... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A shaky start to 2014 Commodities prices started 2014 on a subdued note as high stocks in the US depressed crude oil while poor manufacturing PMI data from China raised concerns about wider commodity demand. Prices... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Energy efficiency gains to constrain EM demand It is often taken as given that oil demand in the developing world will increase exponentially, driven by buoyant economic activity, leading to ever higher oil prices. However, there is huge scope for... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Nuclear shutdown not the main reason for surging trade deficit The widening in Japan's trade deficit is often attributed to a surge in energy imports as a result of the nuclear shutdown. However, the jump in the energy import bill is mostly due to the impact of... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cold weather heats up the US natural gas market The extreme cold in the US this winter has caused a dramatic increase in the price of natural gas. This jump is likely to be short-lived but we expect a more sustained price rise from 2015. 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Too soon to panic about zinc supply The scheduled closure of a number of the world’s largest zinc mines after a period of strong growth in consumption suggests that there could be upward pressure on zinc prices in 2014-15. This... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Bad news from China offsets better news from Europe Disappointing manufacturing data from China underline the downside risks to the prices of industrial commodities in the coming months, although the news from the euro-zone is continuing to improve. 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Little to galvanise the steel price in 2014 Lower production costs and only modest growth in demand is likely to mean that steel mills will have little pricing power in 2014 and that prices will fall. By 2015, however, if consolidation in China... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China to stop supporting cotton prices Changes to China’s farm subsidies, which would allow market forces to have more influence over domestic cotton and soybean prices, should also result in substantially lower state stockpiling. This... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Risks (mostly) still on the downside Commodities will not of course underperform other assets for ever, especially with end-user demand supported by a strengthening global economy. In comparison, valuations in equity and bond markets are... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Should we worry about sinking freight costs? The latest slump in the Baltic Dry Index (a measure of sea freight costs) has prompted some concern over the strength of the global economic recovery. However, we would not place much faith in the BDI... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Indonesia's export ban offers temporary support to nickel prices On 12th January, a law banning ore exports from Indonesia came into effect. The impact will be greatest in the nickel market, where Indonesia has a dominant position as the second largest miner of... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Higher output implies another weak year for grain prices Further increases in the production of grains and soybeans this year should put further downward pressure on prices. However, there is still plenty of time for adverse weather to shock the market. 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran deal underlines downside risks for global oil prices Confirmation that the interim nuclear deal between the major Western powers and Iran will come into force on 20th January is not in itself a game-changer for oil markets. Indeed, in the near-term... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US farmers dig in for cold weather The very cold weather in the US appears to have had fairly little impact on agricultural commodities. Indeed, even those crops most at risk, such as wheat and citrus fruits, seem to be mostly unharmed... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity import demand set to slow further Unsurprisingly, China’s imports of many commodities, including oil, reached new highs in 2013. More noteworthy were clear signs of a slowdown in the growth of many key commodity imports. What’s more... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
