Commodities Update The environment looks to be winning the war on coal We expect global demand for coal to be subdued and prices to fall further over the next few years as major consuming countries, including China as well as the US, take fresh steps to reduce pollution. 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does the Fed decision mean for commodities? After the initial bounce, the Fed’s decision to maintain its current pace of asset purchases for a while longer is unlikely to have any major implications for commodity prices. Precious metals have... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can seasonal demand alone rescue the price of gold? This is the time of the year when the price of gold is traditionally assumed to be boosted by a seasonal pick-up in demand. There does indeed appear to be a seasonal pattern in the gold price but, as... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update If the oil market is well supplied, what's keeping prices high? In contrast to OPEC, we think that supply outages from Libya and other producers, as well as wider geopolitical tensions, are playing a key role in keeping oil prices high. 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising China demand won't stop oil prices from falling Despite increasing oil imports by China and other emerging economies, we expect the price of crude to fall as the temporary factors underpinning current high prices are resolved. What’s more, larger... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Oil prices should fall back as conventional supply recovers Crude oil prices are undoubtedly higher than they would otherwise be as a result of disruptions to supply – both actual (notably current outages in Libya) and potential (due to fears of contagion from... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Thai rice price has not quite found its floor yet Despite the dramatic decline in the price of Thai rice over the last month, we still think there is room for further falls. Sales from Thailand’s enormous official stockpiles into an already well... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack More upside for gold than oil? Concerns about the impact of Fed tapering on commodity markets have eased somewhat, partly because of the growing recognition that US monetary policy is likely to remain very loose, and partly because... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Shanghai copper premiums are likely to plummet Copper premiums in Shanghai hit a record high earlier this month but we expect them to fall from around $175 per tonne at present to under $100 over the next six months or so. 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s behind the rally in gold? The recent partial recovery in the price of gold reflects a range of positives. Some of these should be sustained, notably the growing recognition that US monetary conditions will remain loose even... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Favourable oil prices could spur business investment The rebound in domestic crude oil prices over the first half of this year has improved the outlook for Canadian business investment. Overall, this suggests some upside risk to GDP outlook of 1.5% in... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China and euro-zone data provide some cheer (for now) In the event, the FOMC minutes simply reinforced expectations that the US central bank will start to taper its asset purchases as soon as next month. Instead, industrial metals prices have been buoyed... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update LME steel prices set to rally We expect the LME steel price to rise from around $165 per tonne to $270 by the end of 2015 due to the narrowing of differences between LME and other steel prices and the closure of Chinese capacity. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will US energy exports be a game-changer? The surge in US oil and gas production in recent years has fuelled expectations that the country could eventually become a major energy exporter. Indeed, the US already runs trade surpluses in coal... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Latest jump in oil prices looks unsustainable Only a small part of the recent run-up in oil prices is due to the turmoil in Egypt. But whatever the reason for the latest jump in the cost of crude, the fragility of the global economic recovery and... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for euro-zone equities? Today’s euro-zone GDP data provided a further small boost to the region’s stock markets, which have been enjoying something of a revival in the second half of 2013. However, the economic outlook in... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
