Commodities Update How much might conflict with Iran add to oil prices? The price of a barrel of Brent could spike from current levels of around $114 to anywhere between $135 and $210 in the unlikely event of a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities by the US or... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can tin producers wait long enough for higher prices? Tin is caught in a battle between Indonesian producers, who have halted exports as they wait for the metal’s price to rise from $21,500 to $25,000 per tonne, and consumers hoping exports will resume... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rice prices to drop sharply as Thai floods recede Thailand, the world’s largest rice exporter, has lost up to a quarter of its main rice harvest due to recent floods. However, ample global stockpiles, improved harvests in other major rice producing... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s imports of commodities (Oct.) The recovery in China’s commodity imports continued to gather pace in October. We remain of the view that this is mainly due to importers restocking, encouraged by lower prices, rather than any... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK recession risks weigh on markets While the twists and turns of the euro-zone debt crisis have continued to have a key bearing on UK market movements, markets also appear to be concerned that the UK economy is on the brink of... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will lower commodity prices rescue the world economy? We are forecasting some pretty substantial falls in commodity prices over the next few years, which should provide some support for global growth. However, the experience of 2008 and 2009 shows that... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Euro crisis likely to drag commodity prices much lower Our already low end-2013 forecasts for the prices of a range of major commodities, including Brent crude ($75 per barrel), copper ($5,000 per tonne) and corn (500 cents per bushel), assume that the... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Fragile recovery already faltering The recovery in most commodity prices in October now seems like ancient history. The hopes generated by the apparent pick-up in Chinese demand, renewed talk of a third round of quantitative easing... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Too little, too late We do not expect the recent respite for risky assets to last. The outlook for the advanced economies is bleak and the growth rate of corporate earnings is set to slow. Investors’ enthusiasm for risk... 29th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper bottomed? The price of copper has rallied by 20% in the past week, to over $8,000 per tonne, following its earlier steep decline. But we believe this rebound is a false dawn and continue to expect the price of... 29th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar hedges its bets With oil prices likely to fall further next year, the Qatari authorities’ decision to hedge part of their 2012 oil exports looks wise. While the government’s balance sheet is amongst the healthiest in... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are commodities still a distinct asset class? The increasingly tight correlations between the prices of commodities and those of other assets, notably equities, have prompted some to question whether commodities can still be regarded as an asset... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No hard landing for China but demand outlook still poor The pick-up in China’s unofficial manufacturing PMI has eased concerns that the economy is about to crash land, but a period of relatively weak growth still lies ahead. What’s more, the latest euro... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Dollar gains to add to downward pressures on prices The prospect of further strength in the US dollar is a clear and present danger to commodity prices of all types. But if the main driver is worries about sovereign debt, gold should still outperform. 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Poor demand prospects mean prices have further to fall The sharp falls in commodity prices in the third quarter illustrate the importance of macroeconomic and financial market factors on the demand side, which once again have more than offset the... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent to fall further despite index rebasing (and Iran) We have been asked one or both of the same two oil-related questions by several clients this week. In summary, what are the implications of the addition of Brent to the basket for the Dow-Jones UBS... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
