Global Markets Outlook Market implications of an EMU break-up Risky asset markets have generally made a bright start to 2012. But our central scenario envisages a break-up of EMU this year initially involving Greece’s departure, an outcome that would presumably... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s growth will not be enough to avert price declines In keeping with much of this week’s China data, today’s flash estimate of the manufacturing PMI supports our view that the economy is heading for a soft landing in 2012. However, we still do not think... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Growth fears drive gilt yields lower The further drop in gilt yields appears to have reflected declining expectations for GDP growth and related falls in long-term interest rate expectations, rather than fiscal developments. Indeed, the... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Oil Minister’s comments point to higher spending in 2012 Comments earlier this week from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi indicating that the government is comfortable with a crude oil price of $100pb (up from $70-80 previously) suggests that public... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Saudi comments point to lower oil prices The publication of OPEC’s monthly oil market report today has been overshadowed by two comments from Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi. First, Mr al-Naimi confirmed that Saudi output could be increased... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Corn prices yet to find their floor The benchmark corn future in the US has already fallen by 50 cents to just over 600 cents per bushel after the world agricultural supply and demand report published yesterday by the US Department of... 13th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Three Iran scenarios for the oil price The main driver of global oil prices so far this year has been concern about the potential disruption to supplies from the Middle East as a result of tensions with Iran. This Update looks at three... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s really behind the rewidening of the Brent-WTI spread? Most analysts attribute the renewed increase in the differential between the prices of Brent crude and WTI over the last few days primarily to changes in the composition of the two major commodity... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rice prices to fall another 20% in 2012 The acceleration of the rice purchase scheme by the Thai government and setting of minimum export prices by the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) have led many analysts to argue that the price of... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese copper imports hit record high in December China’s overall imports of commodities weakened slightly in December but the fourth quarter of last year as a whole was still strong. Indeed, imports of copper hit a record high last month. However... 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Market rally does not alter Canada's outlook Last week's market rally in commodity prices, which was already flagging before the week ended, does nothing to alter our view on Canada's economic outlook. After growing by an estimated 2.4% in 2011... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update "Tail risks" to oil prices still skewed to the downside The two greatest “tail risks” to oil prices this year are an escalation of tensions between Iran and the West (on the upside) and a worsening of the crisis in the euro-zone (on the downside). In... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US stock market resilience unlikely to last The US stock market recovered some poise in December. But while we do not expect equity prices to collapse in 2012, we think there are three reasons why they may continue to languish – our end-year... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack More rollercoaster than super-cycle Commodity prices are ending 2011 with a whimper. Over the year as a whole the only major commodities to show significant increases are Brent crude and gold. Most components of the closely-watched S&P... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Two painful lessons for commodity investors from 2011 This year’s sizeable falls in most commodity prices have highlighted two points that have actually been clear for much longer but are still not yet acknowledged by many commentators. First, even if... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are falling copper stocks a reason to be bullish? Declining stocks on global metal exchanges are often given as a reason to expect prices to rise. However, we are sceptical that the recent decline in reported copper stocks is due to strong end user... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
