Asia Economics Weekly High oil prices will not lift inflation The pick-up in oil prices in recent weeks has caused some to fear that inflation in Asia will soon rise sharply. These fears are over-blown. Even if oil prices stayed at current levels, inflation... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Do rising equity prices offset higher gas prices? Households are currently being subjected to a number of diverse and often opposing economic forces, but most will cancel each other out and we still anticipate consumption growth of just above 2% this... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How tight is China’s corn market? Recent industry reports suggest that China’s corn production in 2011/12 could be as much as 14% lower than current official estimates. As a result, China’s imports are likely to be considerably higher... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s current account deficit not just about oil The recent spike in oil prices will make it harder for Turkey to rein in its current account deficit. But there is more to Turkey’s current account shortfall than simply the high cost of energy... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Is the long bull market in gold finally over? There is now ample scope for some big moves in the price of gold in both directions in the coming years. If the crisis in Europe is indeed past its worst and the US economy improves enough to allow... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How big is the Iran premium in oil prices? Estimates of the amount that the tensions between the West and Iran have added to global oil prices range from $5 to $25 per barrel (pb). Our best guess is towards the bottom of this range – perhaps... 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Mar.) The performance of equity markets across the Arab world has diverged since the beginning of the year. Stock markets in Egypt, Dubai and Saudi outperfromed the rest of the region and indeed the MSCI... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's strong commodity imports not set to last China’s imports of commodities in February were strong, especially in volume terms, but this may have been distorted upwards by the relatively early timing of the Lunar New Year holidays and by... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA report points to lower corn and soybean prices Consensus expectations of a significant tightening for corn and soybean were not supported by the latest supply and demand report from the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA). As a result... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets reassess QE outlook UK interest rate expectations have started to edge up and UK equities have underperformed those overseas as investors have reacted to tentative signs in the Bank of England’s Inflation Report and from... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Cuts to fuel subsidies mean no more rate cuts in Indonesia Having cut interest rates by a cumulative 100bp over the past six months, Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates on hold today, as expected. With upcoming cuts to fuel price subsidies likely to push inflation... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update India’s ban unlikely to prevent further falls in cotton prices The spot price of the benchmark Memphis cotton price have jumped more than 5% to around 87 cents per lb after India, the world’s second largest producer and exporter of cotton, banned exports of the... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why would Russia benefit from lower oil prices? The numerous benefits of high oil prices for the Russian economy have concealed the bigger picture that over the past decade they have also served as a hindrance to much-needed political and economic... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Commodity price moves do not herald a surge in inflation The recent strength of oil prices means that headline inflation may not decline as quickly as it would otherwise have done, but inflation in energy costs is still set to fall. What’s more, while oil... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Focus on oil prices neglects wider commodity picture The recent rise in oil prices has sparked fears that CPI inflation will not fall as fast as hoped. However, the focus on oil prices ignores the fact that other commodity prices have risen by less, if... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will oil continue to outperform? Many of the usual relationships between oil and other commodity prices have broken down in the past year, with the cost of crude rising to its highest level since 2008 while the prices of key... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
