Commodities Update What might China's "war on pollution" mean for metals prices? At face value, the “war” on pollution and less investment-driven growth reiterated at China’s ongoing National People’s Congress (NPC) does not bode well for commodity demand (or prices). Indeed, we... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ukraine crisis a bigger threat to grain markets than energy Whilst we do not expect significant disruption to the supply of any commodities, there is much greater potential for exports of grain from the Ukraine to be interrupted than energy supplies from... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does the Ukraine crisis mean for energy prices? A further escalation of the crisis in Ukraine could return the price of a barrel of Brent to the highs of around $125 seen in the early days of the “Arab Spring”. However, we would expect any such... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Unseasonal weather lifts prices Adverse weather played a major role in the upward price movements of both energy and agricultural commodities in February. Harsh winter conditions in the US boosted energy prices while concerns about... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Political upheaval in Thailand to weigh on rice prices The potential end of the controversial support scheme for rice farmers in Thailand this week should add to the downward pressure on rice prices over the next few years. In particular, how the... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Political risk and bad weather keep prices high After calming down towards the end of last year, political protests and disruption in key producer countries have re-emerged as a key factor driving oil prices higher. What’s more, the extreme cold in... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sluggish manufacturing data to keep prices subdued Weaker manufacturing PMIs published today underline the downside risks to the prices of industrial metals from the continued slowdown in China and the fragility of the recovery in the euro-zone. Even... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How are Chinese financing deals affecting the copper market? One source of relief for copper producers has been the recent strength of China’s copper imports. This has been somewhat surprising given that other indicators point to weakening Chinese economic... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Quality over quantity for Chinese farmers, but supply still ample The announcement that China’s government will place more emphasis on food safety and quality, rather than just quantity, might suggest that the country will have to import significantly more grain... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Bad US weather driving commodity prices in unexpected ways Adverse weather is affecting US commodity prices in some obvious and some more surprising ways. As would be expected, the prices of energy and some agricultural commodities have surged. But less... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Gold's last hurrah? The recent partial recovery in the price of gold vindicates the cautiously positive view we have held since the slump in the first half of 2013. We continue to expect further gains over the course of... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's imports not as strong as headlines suggest Although China’s imports of many commodities reached new “record highs” in levels terms in January, this headline can be written most months. Indeed, the data were probably flattered by demand brought... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong demand to limit grain price falls Strong demand for grains is likely to support prices over the first half of the year. However, large harvests in South America and the US should put downward pressure on prices as the year progresses. 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Falling aluminium premiums should support prices We believe that the recent surge in US aluminium price premiums will be temporary as it reflects a regional supply bottleneck rather than a fundamentally tight global market. Supply will inevitably... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Deteriorating supply prospects to support PGM prices Unlike the majority of base metals, the supply profile for the leading Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), platinum and palladium, is likely to deteriorate. South Africa and Russia account for the bulk of... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazilian drought heats up coffee and sugar markets High global stocks of sugar and coffee should be more than ample to cover any damage to crop production from the heat wave in Brazil. However, the amount of rain over the next few months will be the... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
