Commodities Chart Pack May's meltdown The prices of industrial and agricultural commodities were hit hard in May by the escalating crisis in the euro-zone and worries over demand from China (as we had anticipated). In particular, oil fell... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Easing Iran tensions to undermine oil prices further Concerns about the crisis in the euro-zone, fears of a “hard landing” in China and weaker data in the US have displaced tensions with Iran as the main driver of global oil prices. Nonetheless, a... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would a Greek euro exit mean for commodities? Our central forecasts for industrial commodity prices already reflect some of the potential fall-out from a Greek euro exit. In particular, the economic and financial uncertainty is one of several... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower petrol prices to add some fuel to consumer recovery The recent fall in oil prices should, if maintained, bring petrol prices down by enough to boost consumers’ annual disposable incomes by about 0.2%. However, this will not be enough to stop real pay... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Where is the safe haven demand for gold? The price of gold has dropped sharply in recent days and is barely changed in 2012 to date. The fact that gold has struggled despite the worsening crisis in Europe has added to doubts about its status... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports drop back Chinese commodity imports have been undermined by weak industrial demand and high stockpiles. We expect these factors to continue to put downward pressure on commodity prices. 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent on course to end year below $100 Crude oil prices have remained weak after last week’s sharp falls, largely due to concerns over the US economy and the escalating problems in Europe. We expect these pressures to ebb and flow over the... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Can Chile get rich off commodities? History indicates that it is very difficult for a country to get rich purely through the extraction of natural resources. In order to meet President Piñera’s target of becoming a developed nation... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Opening up Mexican oil sector could pump growth The emergence of a political consensus in favour of opening up the oil industry in Mexico has increased the likelihood that the winner of July’s presidential election will take steps to increase the... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Wheat prices have further to fall Wheat prices fell by around 7% last week as concerns about crop damage due to a late winter freeze in the US were replaced by expectations of a bumper harvest. Prices have recovered a little this week... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growing risk of fiscal crises in the oil-poor Arab countries One of the most striking – and often overlooked – developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) following the Arab Spring has been the stark divergence in the fiscal health of the region’s... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Three illustrative scenarios for the price of gold The lack of a reliable income stream makes gold notoriously hard to value objectively, whilst the key drivers constantly seem to be changing. The current price is around $1,645 per ounce, having been... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Searching for direction Commodity prices as a whole were little changed in April. The drought-related rise in soybean prices has drawn some media interest, but this was more than offset by falls for other agriculturals... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fears of global food price inflation unjustified Fears that the recent jump in some agricultural prices will lead to an upturn in world inflation are wide of the mark. Overall, agricultural prices have barely changed this year and are still much... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Search for safe havens set to resume We think tougher times lie ahead for risky assets. Enthusiasm for equities is likely to be curbed by a turn in the US profit cycle, an absence of additional unconventional monetary stimulus from the... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What's next for soybean prices? The price of the benchmark yellow no. 1 soybean has risen by about 20% since the beginning of 2012, to 1400 US cents per bushel, from 1180. Factors that contributed to this rise are drought related... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
