Canada Economics Weekly Rising retail gasoline prices no conundrum The recent jump in gasoline prices isn’t a conundrum. Several explanatory factors are at play, including seasonal effects. But for the most part, rising gasoline prices reflect higher refinery crude... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update El Niño will only provide temporary support to commodity prices An El Niño weather event appears likely in the second half of 2014, which may disrupt the supply of some commodities. The disruption could lead to sharply higher prices where stocks are already low or... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: oil sector boom masks medium-term weakness A combination of rising oil production and investment into its offshore hydrocarbons sector is likely to underpin strong economic growth in Angola over the next couple of years. But history suggests... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Recovery gains momentum The past month has seen Latin American financial markets perform fairly well, building on the momentum of March’s rebound. But despite the recent gains, we expect some renewed downside this year amid... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Is LNG the route to a global natural gas price? Global LNG supply is set to soar over the next five years as a number of large projects in Australia come on stream and the US starts to export. The greater availability of more flexible gas supply... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What China’s GDP data should mean for commodities China’s official GDP data for the first quarter, released earlier today, could reasonably be interpreted either positively or negatively for commodities. The commonest reaction appears to be relief... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Still too soon to call the turn The main upward pressures on commodity prices have recently been coming from the supply-side, including weather shocks (many agriculturals), export bans (some industrial metals), and unplanned outages... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus A Chinese hard landing: Which Asian countries are most at risk? A hard landing in China’s economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of Emerging Asia. A slump in Chinese demand would hurt economies with close trade links to China, with... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's soybean demand is likely to slump later this year We think that the drivers of the recent surge in grain and soybean prices are likely to prove temporary. Lower demand from China coupled with large harvests from Brazil should put downward pressure on... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese commodity imports prove resilient, for now China’s imports of key commodities grew strongly in the first quarter of this year despite slowing industrial activity. However, we think it is too soon to conclude that growth in commodity demand is... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How vulnerable are gold prices to rising real yields? All else being equal, the return of US inflation-adjusted interest rates to more normal levels might be expected to lead to a sharp fall in the gold price. However, we expect the pace of normalisation... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Unplanned supply outages keeping oil prices high Large unplanned supply outages have helped keep oil prices high over the last three years, despite a surge in production from the US. We expect the factors holding back supply to ease over the next... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium prices will still struggle this year Aluminium prices have been falling since 2011, despite solid growth in demand. The underlying problem is the scale of excess capacity and output in China which will remain a drag this year at least... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US farmers to prioritise soybeans over corn Large potential plantings of soybeans, corn and wheat by US farmers underpin our view that US grain and soybeans prices are likely to fall over the course of this year. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack China fears weigh on industrial metal prices There was considerable variation in individual commodity price movements in March. Weak Chinese economic data weighed on both industrial metals and energy prices, but the prices of some agricultural... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slower growth in China's demand for oil to weigh on prices We expect China’s oil demand to continue to grow at a sluggish pace over the next few years. However, rather than this primarily being due to slower economic growth, we would put more emphasis on... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
