Emerging Europe Economics Update European shale gas adds to risks to Russia’s growth model European shale gas reserves will take many years to develop, but in time the impact on Russia’s energy exports could be substantial. We estimate that Russia’s revenues from gas exports to Europe may... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Shale gas will transform the UK energy market (eventually) It may still be many years before the UK’s huge reserves of shale gas can be profitably exploited on a large scale, but the impact could then be significant. Even in the near term, the boom in the... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Weather won't keep US natural gas prices down for long The bulk of the decline in the price of US natural gas, from $6 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) early in 2010 to around $3 at the start of 2012, can be explained by the surge in supply. But... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Risks to China’s commodity demand still skewed downwards North Korea’s rocket program appears to be at greater risk of an imminent “hard landing” than China’s economy. But beyond that, today’s Q1 GDP data tell us little about the prospects for China’s... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Markets Monitor (Apr.) Consistent with trends in other emerging markets, most of the Middle East’s stock markets have dropped back from the highs reached earlier this year. While Egypt’s fall is perhaps the most striking... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update IEA’s oil market outlook still too bullish The IEA’s latest assessment that the “tide of remorseless tightening in the oil market” appears to have turned is surely right. Indeed, this has already been reflected in the levelling out of crude... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Supply shortages already priced into corn and soybean Global soybean production estimates published by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) were revised down today, but by no more than already anticipated by the market. However... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports show signs of weakening Many analysts have focused on the still-high levels of China’s commodity imports in March and the rapid year-on-year growth rate. However, the seasonally adjusted data show imports ended the quarter... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Buoyant commodity prices net positive for economy The upswing in commodity prices since the global economic slump over three years ago has been an important part of Canada's recent economic performance. This is highlighted by the positive... 9th April 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch US natural gas prices to rebound despite supply boom US natural gas prices have fallen to around $2 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) due to soaring supply and the mild winter in North America. But they now look far too low relative to... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s next for sugar? The price of sugar has strengthened recently due to concerns over harvests in Brazil, the world’s largest producer. The consensus is for prices to continue rising from the current level of 23.4 cents... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Oil prices peaking? The support to commodity prices from the general improvement in investor confidence, which had been fostered earlier in the first quarter by better economic data from the US and China and the ECB’s... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus What will bring oil prices down? The price of Brent has remained close to $125 per barrel despite verbal intervention from Saudi Arabia and the threat of an early release of official stocks led by the US. We are therefore nudging up... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Jump in oil prices is a net benefit for Latin America Latin America is one of the few regions to have benefitted from the $25pb jump in oil prices over the past six months or so: higher prices provide a prop to regional growth and, for now at least, the... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities shouldn't bank on more support from the Fed The positive reaction in commodity markets to Fed Chairman Bernanke's seemingly dovish speech on Monday has already begun to fade, which makes sense to us. What's more, any additional bond buying is... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Global outlook still points to lower commodity prices A quick review of recent developments in the world economy supports our relatively downbeat forecasts for the prices of the commodities, notably oil and industrial metals, most sensitive to global... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
