Global Markets Update A selection of our non-consensus calls At first sight, many of our views now look close to the consensus. However, this is typically because other analysts have swung round to our long-held positions, which have mostly been proved right... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Price of coal to drift gradually lower It is often taken as given that demand for coal will continue to rise inexorably as developing countries use it to power their growing economies. However, coal’s poor environmental credentials are... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Solid fundamentals will support palladium prices Palladium prices have risen 11% since the beginning of this year. A number of recent developments, including the risk of disruption to Russia’s exports of palladium, have provided a boost. But we... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No sign of China headwinds easing The latest manufacturing PMIs confirm that China’s economy is continuing to slow and that the recovery in the euro-zone lacks strong momentum. This should continue to weigh on the prices of industrial... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Surge in supply will weigh on iron ore prices Iron ore prices have fallen by nearly 20% since the beginning of this year, despite still strong Chinese imports. Prices may recover somewhat as we move into the second quarter, a time of seasonal... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More upside for Iraqi oil production The recent surge in Iraqi oil production is a good sign that Baghdad’s ambitious plans to dramatically increase output may be on the right path after stalling for the last year. However, there are... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Common factors driving agricultural prices higher We think that the sharp rise in agricultural prices since the beginning of the year is likely to be a spike rather than the start of an upward trend. Indeed, the surge in prices is mainly due to a... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US rate expectations have further to rise The adverse market reaction to the slightly more hawkish tone of comments from the Fed yesterday looks justified to us. Indeed, market expectations for US interest rates are likely to rise further... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update It's time to differentiate more between metals As copper and iron ore prices went into apparent freefall last week, one might have expected a general sell-off in metals markets. However, the response of other metals prices was more nuanced, with... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Would the release of US strategic oil reserves be a game changer? The sale of crude oil from the US’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not as unusual as some of the media headlines suggest, and the small test release, announced yesterday, is unlikely to have a... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Crop prices supported by weather and conflict risks Grain and soybean prices are likely to be determined by weather factors and geopolitical risks over the next few months, but we believe that the risks lie to the downside, especially for soybeans. 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper and iron ore prices to fall further It has been our long-held (and non-consensus) view that copper and iron ore prices were set to fall significantly this year based on improving mine supply and slowing demand growth, notably in China... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slowing demand to weigh on coal prices We expect global demand for coal to be subdued and prices to fall further over the next few years as major consuming countries, including China as well as the US, take more steps to reduce pollution... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's imports likely to slow again in coming months China’s commodity imports were much stronger than expected in year-on-year terms in February. But we suspect that much of this is due to a combination of financing deals and opportunistic buying... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Pick-up in Saudi economy driven by the oil sector Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the Saudi Arabian economy picked up at the start of this year. But the rebound has been driven by the oil sector, while the non-oil sector continues to struggle... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What the crisis in Ukraine could mean for the rest of the world The crisis in Ukraine still has the potential to have a significant and prolonged impact on the global economy and financial markets, even though our current judgement is that the fallout is likely to... 7th March 2014 · 1 min read
