Commodities Update Prices vulnerable again to QE3 disappointment Not for the first time, commodity prices have recently been propped up by hopes of additional monetary stimulus from the US central bank. This explains the initial market disappointment that Chairman... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six reasons not to panic about US grain prices Fears of the “worst drought in the US in 25 years” have led to a spike in US grain prices and understandably added to concerns about another global food inflation shock. However, there are at least... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to stoke inflation A sharp jump in some agricultural commodity prices has stoked fears of a renewed spike in inflation in Latin America. But we think that those concerns are misplaced. Indeed, we expect the agricultural... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Hopes of second half rebound have weak foundations With the notable exception of the impact of the dry weather in the US on grain markets, macroeconomic and financial factors continued to drag commodity prices lower in the second quarter. The... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Three scenarios for US corn prices In this note we set out three illustrative scenarios for the price of US corn. If the dry weather remains the key driver and conditions turn out to be as bad as those in 1988, then corn could still... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Lower oil prices threaten investment prospects The faltering global economy has driven commodity prices lower, with Canadian oil prices down sharply from levels earlier this year. Although oil prices have risen somewhat over the past week, we... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Spike in price of Brent unlikely to be sustained The price of Brent crude has jumped back above $100 per barrel (pb) today, but we doubt this rebound will last for long. In particular, Iran’s threats to disrupt the flow of oil through the Strait of... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack End-June rally on shaky ground June’s price volatility offered something for everyone, with several key commodities seeing unusually large moves either up or down, and, in the case of oil, both over the course of the month. This... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation outlook improves further If core inflation falls as we expect, it now looks like inflation could get as low as 0.5% or so in the early part of next year. 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) April's 0.3% m/m increase in GDP, thanks to a rebound in the volatile mining sector, was slightly stronger than consensus expectations (0.2% m/m) and supports our view that Canada's economy grew... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What effect will Iran sanctions have on oil prices? We maintain our view that the imminent tightening of Western sanctions on Iran is unlikely to have anywhere near as large an impact on global oil prices as many had feared. Demand is weakening and... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela heading for recession in 2013 as oil prices tumble The recent sharp drop in oil prices spells danger for Venezuela. The government may be able to muster sufficient funds to prop up the economy this year. But if oil prices continue to fall and remain... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian Financial Crisis – 15 years on Monday 2nd July marks the 15-year anniversary of the start of the Asian Financial Crisis. In retrospect, the region weathered the crisis and its aftermath well. However, trend growth has slowed... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Food inflation to continue to fall despite corn price spike The recent jump in US corn prices has led to fears of an upturn in world food inflation. However, agricultural prices in general are still much lower than they were a year ago, and even the surge in... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The return of Russian inflation We estimate that planned hikes in Russian utility tariffs next month and again in September will add a total of around 2.0%-pts to headline inflation, pushing it to 6.5% by the end of the year. The... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
