Commodities Update China's commodity imports boosted by oil A rebound in China’s imports of oil in October flatters the state of underlying commodity demand. The current improvement in economic activity is unlikely to lead to a similar rebound in overall... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA report should ease fears over grain prices The latest “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates” published today by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) appear to have calmed the markets, and rightly so. In particular... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ukraine wheat export “ban” remains a sideshow The ongoing debate over whether or not Ukraine is set to ban wheat exports misses the bigger points that (i) Ukraine has already exported almost all of the grain it was expected to this year, and (ii)... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How "good" economic data can be "bad" for commodities The slide in commodity prices today following the release of an apparently strong US Employment Report underlines their sensitivity to expectations of further monetary support. As it happens, the pace... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Prices start to fall to more sustainable levels Commodity prices mostly declined last month, led by the industrial metals most sensitive to macroeconomic and financial conditions. The main exception was US natural gas, whose price recovered further... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Romney vs. Obama: energy policies compared The differences between the energy policies of US President Obama and his equally worthy rival Mitt Romney are largely ones of rhetoric and emphasis rather than substance. Oil prices might fall a... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Has China helped or hurt emerging economies? China’s development has had a significant impact on emerging market growth, and not all economies have unambiguously benefitted. Even countries that have made the most of Chinese demand may find... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook A renewed struggle in store for risky assets The boost to risky assets from QE3 may already be over. The prices of equities and commodities have generally fallen since mid-September. And while the ECB brought the euro-zone back from the brink in... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia budget plans: still banking on high oil prices Russia’s draft budget for 2013-15 implies that fiscal policy will become far more restrictive over the next three years. But it is doubtful that the government will be able to stick to its plans to... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Does the price of gold follow a seasonal pattern? November is the month when the price of gold is traditionally assumed to be boosted the most by a seasonal pick-up in demand. There does indeed appear to be a seasonal pattern in the gold price but... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Risks of global food price shock continue to recede The jump in grains prices due to the exceptionally hot summer in the US still feeds headlines warning of another global food price shock similar to that in 2007-08. More recently, the spectre of... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Downside risks to dominate A powerful cocktail of cyclical and structural factors is likely to maintain the downward pressure on commodity prices over the coming months. The launch of QE3 has failed to provide the sustained... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Global oil prices to fall further and remain lower We still expect the price of a barrel of Brent to drop back to around $85 next year, despite threats of a complete halt to Iranian oil exports. Our forecast would also be well below the “fair price”... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak recovery in China, none at all in euro-zone Today’s early indications of economic conditions in October provided mixed signals for commodity markets, with some less-bad news from China offset by a further deterioration in the euro-zone. The... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What could the US elections mean for commodities? The outcome of the US Presidential election is unlikely to have a major impact on commodity markets but there may still be some fall-out if Romney wins. Romney’s plan to accelerate energy independence... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fears of new agricultural export bans look overdone Talk of widespread export bans has continued to boost the prices of agricultural commodities over the last few days, but the basis for this speculation remains flimsy. The immediate focus is the... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
