Commodities Chart Pack Holding out for a hero Commodity markets appear to be banking on some unlikely heroes among policy-makers to turn the global economy around quickly and save the euro. However, with midnight fast approaching, any action has... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Recovery in oil prices is poorly supported The partial recovery in oil prices over the last month is based on shaky ground. An immediate meltdown in the euro-zone may have been averted, but Europe is sliding into a deep recession and the risks... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Syrian crisis: are fears of oil supply disruptions justified? The increase in oil prices over the past few weeks has been partly blamed on the escalation in tensions in Syria, which has raised fresh concerns of supply disruptions. But unless the Syrian crisis... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Spring slowdown flows into summer The economic slowdown that began in the spring months has continued into the summer. We estimate that GDP grew at an annualised rate of around 1.5% in the second quarter, down from 1.9% in the first... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Drought not much of a drain on US economy The drought in parts of America is unlikely to have a major economic impact. At most, the resulting rise in agricultural commodity prices will reverse only a small part of the recent fall in inflation... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Pick-up in China’s PMI not enough for a commodities rally The continued deterioration in the euro-zone economy, as highlighted by today’s weakening manufacturing PMI, is likely to drag commodity prices markedly lower despite a small improvement in Chinese... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Pick-up in China's PMI not enough for a commodities rally The continued deterioration in the euro-zone economy, as highlighted by today’s weakening manufacturing PMI, is likely to drag commodity prices markedly lower despite a small improvement in Chinese... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Higher food prices alone won’t derail China’s economy The recent surge in global agricultural commodity prices – if sustained – will add to the downside risks to China’s economy but it is unlikely to be a decisive factor. Overall inflationary pressures... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will global food prices prevent a recovery in real incomes? The 30% increase in global agricultural commodity prices over the last month has prompted fears of a renewed squeeze on households’ incomes. However, food prices would have to rise much further to... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's oil price rebounds, but will it last? Our measure of Canada's 'effective' crude oil price, a blend of three key benchmarks, has rebounded by a sharp 25% over the past few weeks, to US$88 p/b from US$70 p/b. But this rally in crude oil... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Record cereal prices not a big inflation threat Some agricultural commodity prices have hit record highs this week, but the rate of increase of these prices is much lower than it was in 2007 or 2011, while energy prices are still lower than they... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Platinum prices to fall further before 2013 recovery Despite recent output cuts, we think that platinum prices have further to fall. We have pencilled in a low of $1,300 per oz for early 2013, from current levels of around $1,420. Given rising costs in... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Price pressures have eased across the Middle East Inflation pressures are easing in most countries in the Middle East and North Africa region. The drop in global commodity prices has led to a fall in food price inflation across the region. Meanwhile... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Labour market health belies talk of hard landing China’s economy is growing at one of the slowest rates in years but the labour market is showing few signs of strain. Migrant wages were up 13% y/y last quarter. There are still more jobs being... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The UAE’s energy policy should help to ease supply concerns Today’s announcement that the UAE has approved plans for its first nuclear power plant should help to reduce fears that even more oil will have to be used for domestic consumption rather than exported... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Low shipping costs cast doubt on depth of recovery There is still no sign of a meaningful recovery in the Baltic Dry Index – a composite of global freight costs for dry bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal and grains. Admittedly, this largely... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
