Latin America Economics Update Tariff cuts to keep Brazilian inflation from accelerating According to our estimates, the cuts in electricity tariffs announced by Brazil’s government last week should broadly offset any pick-up in food inflation that is likely to follow the recent spike in... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's weak commodity imports show fragility of demand Today’s Chinese trade data highlight the continued weakness in demand in the largest global consumer of commodities. Markets have taken some comfort from the increased likelihood of additional... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What will bring oil prices back down again? A coordinated release of official stocks is one possible trigger for a correction in oil prices, but we still think that it is neither imminent nor necessary. A more realistic assessment of the... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will silver continue to outperform gold? The dollar price of silver has risen by around 16% since the middle of August, fuelled by the prospects of QE3 and hopes of a stronger industrial recovery, outperforming gold’s 6% increase. However... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian economy will cool further Australia’s economy slowed to close to its trend rate in the second quarter, after an unsustainable surge in mining investment drove strong growth in Q1. Although growth is likely to weaken again in... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Oil prices to fall with or without use of strategic reserves There has been fresh speculation that the major oil-consuming nations will shortly announce another release of crude stocks from official reserves, coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA)... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Support from QE3 to be short-lived Commodity prices were supported in August by expectations of additional quantitative easing in the US, but economic activity has remained weak or even worsened. Yet more purchases of US Treasuries or... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Squeeze on real incomes to last even longer Hopes that a summer packed full of sporting and cultural events would boost consumer spending have been dampened by the weaker run of data over the past week or so. What’s more, the recent rise in... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Oil and coal prices face multitude of downside risks Oil prices have been boosted by hopes of additional global policy stimulus and fears of a worsening of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but we expect these supports to be shortlived. Possible... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Aug.) On the back of ample liquidity, scarce supply and low interest rates, highly-rated bond markets in the oil-rich Gulf should continue to outperform other Middle Eastern assets in the coming months... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack IMF comes to the rescue Concerns over the balance of payments positions of some of the resource-poor Arab countries have faded as Morocco and Jordan have secured funding from the IMF. The recent surge in global agricultural... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Export restrictions to have little impact on wheat prices? We believe that fears of a reduction in wheat exports from the Black Sea region are overdone. We do not think that an outright ban is likely either from Russia or Ukraine. Any other forms of export... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Talk of return to Gold Standard to come to nothing Reports that the Republican Party will call for the establishment of a commission to examine the case for restoring the link between the dollar and gold may be another positive for the price of the... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The market implications of QE3 The US Fed looks set to launch QE3 soon, but a third injection of the same medicine is unlikely to be anywhere near as effective as the first two in supporting the prices of equities or commodities... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMI adds to worries about commodities demand China’s flash manufacturing PMI has dropped to its lowest level this year. So far today the impact on commodity prices has been trumped by hopes of further quantitative easing from the US Fed. However... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rise in energy prices unlikely to prevent more stimulus The recent reversal of the 25% or so fall in oil prices earlier this year and the prospect of another round of utility price rises might now mean that CPI inflation struggles to fall below the 2%... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
