Emerging Europe Economics Update How and where the latest sanctions will hit the Russian economy The latest package of sanctions adopted by the EU and the US against Russia will affect the economy in different ways. In the short-term, restrictions on access to western capital markets for selected... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Tightening cycles have further to run The tightening cycles that began in Ghana and South Africa earlier this year continued in July and, in both cases, we think that further interest rate hikes are likely before the end of 2014. Ghana’s... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook North Africa getting back on its feet Three years on from the “Arab Spring” uprisings, the tide is turning in favour of the economies of North Africa. Admittedly, there are still many challenges, not least reining in large twin current... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Property price worries prompt rate hikes The central banks of New Zealand, the Philippines and Malaysia all tightened monetary policy last month amid signs that policymakers are becoming increasingly concerned that loose monetary policy is... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weak Chile activity data point to further interest rate cuts Chile’s activity data for June point to GDP growth of just 2.3% y/y in Q2, an outturn that would mark the third consecutive quarter of sub-3% growth. With the economic outlook unlikely to improve in... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Reduction in fuel subsidies to curb oil demand Subsidies in developing nations allow manyconsumers access to fuel at a fraction of itsmarket cost. However, rather than helping thepoor, most of the benefits of these subsidiesaccrue to richer people... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fracking to play a larger role in UK energy production The UK government’s announcement that it will open a new round of bidding for fracking licencesunderlines its enthusiasm for developing its shale resources. However, it will be many years if... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What impact could El Niño have on agricultural commodities? It is looking increasingly likely that an El Niño weather phenomenon will develop in the Pacific Ocean later this year. This has raised fears that crop production across the Americas, South-East Asia... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Fuel subsidy reform an early test for Indonesia’s Jokowi Financial markets have welcomed the election of Joko Widodo as Indonesia’s president, but there is still great uncertainty over his policy priorities and his ability to push through his own agenda. Mr... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina teeters on the brink of another default With talks between Buenos Aires and holdout bondholders seemingly having stalled, it appears increasingly likely that Argentina will be prevented from making an interest payment that is due on... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs to provide only limited support to commodity prices Despite the rise in the PMIs in both China and the euro-zone in July, the near-termoutlooks for industrial commodity and oil prices remain weak. Indeed, there arelingering concerns that the euro-zone... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Should we be worried by the fall in shipping costs? Freight costs, as measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), have fallen 68% since the beginning of 2014,largely reflecting the oversupply of vessels. However, in our view, the recent falls in the BDI... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Prospects for metals prices brightening The combination of stronger growth but less stimulatory monetary policy in the US is more likely tobe a net positive for commodity prices – especially industrial metals – than for those of other... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why tin should be the next metal to stage a price rally Tin prices have barely moved this year, probably because unofficial stocks are being drawn down tomeet demand. However, in our view, there remains a strong case for prices to rally as demand appearsto... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The implications of the latest twist in the Ukraine crisis Russia is a vital source of global supply of a wide range of commodities, from energy to metals andgrains. At the time of writing, the likely repercussions of the shooting down of a civilian aircraft... 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slump in cotton prices not over yet Extraordinarily high levels of stocks, excessive production and increasing competition from man-madefibres should all put further downward pressure on the price of cotton over the next few years. 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
