Commodities Update Molybdenum: the Capital Economics view Molybdenum is being added to our coverage of industrial metals from today. We expect the molybdenum price to fall by at least another 10% next year, to $9.50 per pound ($21,000 per tonne), as Chinese... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Central America best placed to benefit from China shift After a decade of underperformance, we believe that growth in Central America will start to outpace that of South America over the coming years. Part of the reason for this is the changing... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will the US ever achieve energy independence? The rebound in domestic production of both crude oil and natural gas has led to increased speculation that America could become energy independent. The US will become progressively less reliant on oil... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Industrial metals recover, but upside looks limited Metals prices rallied in November, helped by the general improvement in market sentiment and some better economic data from China. However, global sentiment remains fragile and China’s recovery still... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch How large is the Middle East risk premium? This edition of our monthly Energy Watch takes a closer look at two hot topics in the oil market. The first is the size of the Middle East risk premium in the price of crude, which we believe to be at... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s happening to China’s unreported copper stocks? The conventional method of estimating China’s copper consumption has probably been exaggerating industrial demand for the red metal since the middle of 2011. This is because it does not allow for... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will Basel III affect the demand for gold? There is still widespread confusion and uncertainty over the impact that the Basel III regulations might have on the demand for gold. Gold is an “asset” rather than “capital” and therefore... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Can emerging economies get rich from commodities? History suggests that an abundance of natural resources makes broader economic development difficult for emerging markets (EMs). This is one reason why we believe that the non-commodity EMs of Asia... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Global growth prospects beyond 2020 Some commentators argue that growth of world per capita income over the coming few decades will be much lower than in the past, because technological progress has slowed or because of the depletion of... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs improve but remain at low levels Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs for China and the euro-zone have both risen and appear to have sent commodity prices slightly higher. However, the former only points to a weak recovery in China while... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update East African energy boom comes with risks Discoveries of giant gas fields off the coast of East Africa in the past few months are likely to have a very positive impact on the economies of Mozambique and Tanzania. But while both countries... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The global fall-out from Middle East tensions The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas has contributed to the recent resilience of oil prices and the fragility of equities. The avoidance of a full-scale ground war in Gaza might... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Platinum floor prices higher but downside risks still dominate Labour unrest in South Africa, the dominant global producer of platinum, has raised the floor for platinum prices and should limit their downside in 2013. This is despite the prospect of continued... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Middle East break-evens won’t set a floor on oil prices The recent increases in the level of the oil price required to balance government budgets for the major Gulf producers are often cited as a reason to expect the cost of crude to remain high. In... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we worry about pork prices again? A new government scheme to stabilise China’s volatile pork market appears to be succeeding. As a result, the re-emergence of pork-driven inflation that some have started to warn about is unlikely to... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will the US become the world's top oil producer? The likelihood that the US will become the world’s largest oil producer by the end of the decade is not the game-changer that it may first appear. Total oil output in the US has already surged to a... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
