Commodities Update Iran’s latest position bearish (sic) for oil prices The apparent escalation in tensions between Iran and the EU over the weekend has been widely interpreted as bullish for oil prices. However, Iran’s position looks increasingly weak and the regime may... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium prices to hold up better than copper Over the past decade increases in the price of copper have far outpaced those of aluminium. The flipside is that, during the downturn we expect over the next two years, we forecast aluminium prices to... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How damaging will the Iranian oil embargo be? Oil prices have jumped on the announcement that Iran intends to suspend crude exports to six EU countries, taking Brent back above $120 per barrel. We expect the impact to be short-lived for three... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Prices to drop sharply on euro break-up fears Most commodity prices made a strong start to 2012, helped by increasing hopes that the US will lead a strong recovery in the global economy, declining fears of a “hard landing” in China, and faith... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports show renewed weakness China’s imports of commodities in January were surely distorted downwards by the relatively early timing of the Lunar New Year holidays. Nonetheless, there are plenty of signs of underlying weakness... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strength in Brent likely to be temporary At least half a dozen explanations have been advanced for the recent jump in the price of Brent crude oil, whether in absolute terms or relative to the traditional US benchmark, West Texas... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Collapse in shipping costs may be significant after all The wider significance of the 25-year low recorded in the Baltic Dry Index – a composite of global freight costs for dry bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal and grains – has generally been... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ample global supply to keep wheat prices soft The price of the benchmark no. 2 soft red winter has already fallen by around 20 US cents to just over 660 cents per bushel after Russia’s decision on Friday not to impose any tariff on its grain... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Silver: a star performer but will this last? Silver has been the best performing of the major commodities so far in 2012, rising by around 22% in dollar terms and even outpacing the 12% increase for gold. However, while we expect renewed... 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Can the good times continue to roll? “Risky” assets have made a bright start to 2012. Investors have welcomed a recent improvement in the US economic data, signs of greater fiscal coordination in the euro-zone as well as more support... 2nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A cautionary note on copper January’s recovery in the price of copper was driven by four positives, none of which we expect to be sustained. Accordingly, despite hopes elsewhere of a sustained surge past $10,000 per tonne, from... 2nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack New Year rally built on shaky foundations January was a better month for commodities, supported by hopes of an improvement in the global macroeconomic and financial backdrop. However, the recovery in the US economy has yet to convince even... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Was the Fed statement really so positive for commodities? The prices of most commodities, like those other riskier assets, have been rising after Wednesday’s Fed statement was widely interpreted as a “pledge” to keep US interest rates on hold until the end... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cotton rally set to unravel Optimism about China’s demand and an improvement in general risk appetite among investors have led to a 10% increase in the benchmark Memphis cotton price, to around 90 cents per lb, from its 2011 low... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Savings hold the key to dealing with falling commodity prices The recent rebound in commodity prices has eased concerns about growth outlook for Latin America. But the key point remains that the windfall from high prices has been spent, rather than saved... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will Chesapeake’s supply cut rescue US natural gas prices? The announcement of a production cut by the second largest US natural gas producer, Chesapeake, caused the US natural gas price to jump yesterday. However, we do not expect this to stop the price of... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
