Mortgage Applications (Aug.)

With the share of households seeing now as a good time to buy at a record low, home purchase mortgage applications fell for the fifth consecutive month in August, leaving them down 25% from January’s 11-year high. But with the pace of declines slowing, we suspect mortgage applications will soon flatten out.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
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US Housing Market Data Response

New Home Sales (Oct.)

The marginal improvement in new home sales in October was flattered by a downward revision to September’s data, and the bigger picture is that sales have been fairly steady since May. Looking ahead housing demand will ease as mortgage rates rise but, with new home inventory set to remain much healthier compared to existing homes, new sales will see a steady rise to 880,000 annualised by end-2022.

24 November 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Existing Home Sales (Oct.)

Existing home sales eked out a small gain in October, slowing considerably from last month’s increase. With inventory at a record low, buyer sentiment in a pit and mortgage rates on the rise, we expect sales will fall back to around 5.7m annualised by mid-2022, before rising slowly to 5.75m by end-2023.

22 November 2021

US Housing Market Update

MBS taper won’t widen mortgage spreads

The announcement that the Fed will start to taper its purchases of MBS this month is not set to widen mortgage spreads. The cut in demand will be gradual and offset by a moderation in the supply of MBS as home sales decline. With the cost of the prepayment option set to remain low, we expect the spread between the 30-year mortgage rate and 10-year Treasury yield to stay close to its current level of 170bps over the next few years.

18 November 2021

More from Sam Hall

US Housing Market Data Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun)

House price growth surged above 18% y/y in June, setting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. However, demand has fallen back since the start of the year, and the timelier Common Haus Price Index points to a slowdown in the second half of the year. We therefore expect annual growth will fall back from 18.6% y/y in June to 10% y/y by end-2021.

31 August 2021

US Commercial Property Update

New supply won’t have major impact on industrial rental growth

Despite a higher construction pipeline for distribution warehouses, we think that a high share of pre-let space, coupled with strong demand, means vacancy will only be 20bps higher over the next few years as a result. In turn, we don’t expect it to have a large impact on rents, though it does pose some downside risk to our forecast.

27 August 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

New Home Sales (Jul.)

After a run of declines, new home sales eked out a small gain in July. The recent weakness in sales data likely reflects homebuilders restricting sales as they try to catch-up with the surge in demand seen last year. We therefore expect sales to climb higher as supply improves, ending the year at around 850,000 annualised.

24 August 2021
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