Existing Home Sales (Jun)

Existing home sales edged higher in June, but the bigger picture is that housing market activity is cooling. Booming house prices, rising mortgage rates and tight inventory will weigh on demand this year. As a result, we expect sales to resume their downward trend to around 5.6m annualised by end-2021.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
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US Housing Market Data Response

New Home Sales (Oct.)

The marginal improvement in new home sales in October was flattered by a downward revision to September’s data, and the bigger picture is that sales have been fairly steady since May. Looking ahead housing demand will ease as mortgage rates rise but, with new home inventory set to remain much healthier compared to existing homes, new sales will see a steady rise to 880,000 annualised by end-2022.

24 November 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Existing Home Sales (Oct.)

Existing home sales eked out a small gain in October, slowing considerably from last month’s increase. With inventory at a record low, buyer sentiment in a pit and mortgage rates on the rise, we expect sales will fall back to around 5.7m annualised by mid-2022, before rising slowly to 5.75m by end-2023.

22 November 2021

US Housing Market Update

MBS taper won’t widen mortgage spreads

The announcement that the Fed will start to taper its purchases of MBS this month is not set to widen mortgage spreads. The cut in demand will be gradual and offset by a moderation in the supply of MBS as home sales decline. With the cost of the prepayment option set to remain low, we expect the spread between the 30-year mortgage rate and 10-year Treasury yield to stay close to its current level of 170bps over the next few years.

18 November 2021

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US Housing Market Data Response

Housing Starts (Jun.)

Single-family housing starts rose by 6.3% m/m in June. Despite this, even after the sharp decline in lumber prices in recent weeks there are still signs that supply shortages are holding back construction. But as these constraints ease, builders will make a start on the backlog of delayed projects and that should help starts average 1.16m this year, up 16% on 2020.

20 July 2021

US Commercial Property Update

Bounce in high-rise demand to give way to gardens

There is mounting evidence that the exodus from cities is winding down. As economies reopen, we think that cities will come back to life, bringing a wave of new demand for high-rise apartments. But once the dust settles, the shift to working from home will help garden apartments outperform.

9 July 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Applications (Jun.)

Home purchase mortgage applications fell back again in June, leaving them down 23% compared to the 11-year high seen in January. Tight inventory and stretched affordability are largely responsible for the recent downward trend in housing demand and we expect these factors will persist throughout the year.

7 July 2021
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