The drop back in Treasury yields has accelerated over the past few weeks, as persistent supply shortages and the spread of new coronavirus variants have raised doubts about the pace of real economic growth in the second half of this year and beyond. We share those concerns and, in our upcoming US Economic Outlook that will be released early next week, we intend to revise down our forecast for GDP growth this year to a below-consensus 6.0%. Nevertheless, we still expect long-term Treasury yields to rebound a little in the second half of this year. (See here.)
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