House price growth is on track to reach double figures in the summer before cooling as the stamp duty holiday ends. But with mortgage rates very low, the economy recovering rapidly and households still sitting on a large stock of savings built up during the pandemic, buyer demand should be resilient. As a result, we think that house price growth will cool rather than collapse from 6% y/y in Q4 2021 to 3% in 2022 and 2023.
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