We are growing more concerned about the upside risk to our inflation forecast in the coming months. That’s partly because pipeline price pressures have already risen by a bit more than we had anticipated, and the combined impact of the war in Ukraine and the recent lockdowns in China could mean they pick up even further in the coming months. That suggests the risks to our forecast for Bank Rate to rise from 0.75% currently to 2.00% in 2023 are also shifting to the upside.
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