No need to fear as furlough enters final furlong

We think that concerns about the winding up of the furlough scheme are overdone for two reasons. First, at the end of May only 2.3m people were on furlough and half of them were working at least some hours. Second, by the time the scheme closes at the end of September, we think GDP will have risen back to its pre-pandemic peak. That means the economy can support a level of employment similar to the current level. As such, the furlough will probably go down in history as the scheme that averted a bloodbath in the labour market.