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Unemployment rate to rise by less than in the GFC

The enormous fall in GDP that we have pencilled in for Q2 as a result of the economic effects of the coronavirus implies that the unemployment rate will spike over the next few months and that incomes will be hit hard. However, the short duration of the recession and the massive government support package means that the unemployment rate may rise from 4% to 6% rather than to the GFC-peak of 8%.

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