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IPF Consensus Forecasts (Feb.)

The latest IPF Consensus Survey suggests that commercial property will have a better year than initially thought. Our total returns forecast for 2022 is in line with that of consensus, but beyond this year we are more downbeat about the sectors performance.
Pieter Du Preez Property Economist
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UK Commercial Property Data Response

RICS Construction Market Survey (Q2)

The latest RICS Construction Survey showed a further rise in workloads during Q2, though sentiment for the next 12 months worsened slightly. With labour and supply shortages remaining a major concern and signs that rising interest rates are biting, we expect building activity to weaken in the near term.

4 August 2022

UK Commercial Property Data Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul.)

The fourth consecutive decline in the headline construction PMI took the index below 50 for the first time since January 2021. While driven by an idiosyncratic drop in civil engineering activity, the upbeat new orders and future activity balances look wildly optimistic. Bank of England Drop-In (4th August, 10:30 ET/15:30 BST): Join our post-MPC, 20-minute online briefing to find out why we think UK rates will rise by more than most expect, despite a looming recession. Register now.

4 August 2022

UK Commercial Property Update

Stretched consumers to cut back on leisure spending

As the cost-of-living crisis bites consumers will be forced to cut back on discretionary spending, with the leisure sector set to suffer as a result. At the same time, operators are facing shortages of labour and rising costs. We have therefore cut our rental value forecast to a 1% fall this year and no change in 2023.

Bank of England Drop-In (4th August, 10:30 ET/15:30 BST): Join our post-MPC, 20-minute online briefing to find out why we think UK rates will rise by more than most expect, despite a looming recession. Register now.

2 August 2022

More from Pieter Du Preez

UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Valuations worsen as property yields continue to fall

Property valuations, compared to bonds and equities, deteriorated for a fourth consecutive quarter in Q4. The spread between the asset classes narrowed as the magnitude of the fall in all-property yields outweighed marginal downward moves in gilt and equity dividend yields. We expect property valuations to come under more pressure in the coming months as bond yields rise.

9 February 2022

UK Commercial Property Data Response

IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Jan.)

In contrast to the decline at the end of last year, the construction PMI rose to its highest level in six months in January. There were also encouraging signs that supply and cost issues have started to ease, but we suspect that they will continue to constrain output in the near term.

4 February 2022

UK Commercial Property Data Response

RICS Construction Market Survey (Q4)

The latest RICS survey indicated that activity in Q4 and the outlook for the short term were broadly unchanged. The survey also suggested that labour and material shortages will continue to hurt activity in the coming months.

3 February 2022
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