UK Commercial Property
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IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Jun.)

Despite a further deterioration in the availability of building materials, construction output rose at the fastest pace since 1997 in June. That suggests output in the sector is now well above pre-virus levels.
Andrew Wishart Property Economist
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UK Commercial Property Chart Book

Annual property returns hit a seven-year high

Commercial property ended last year strongly. Annual rental growth climbed to a five-year high, while annual total returns crossed the 20% level. This was largely the result of dynamism in industrial, though all sectors saw positive annual returns, even retail. But we think it will be a struggle to repeat this stellar performance in 2022, as economic headwinds and structural changes weigh on rental growth and the scope for further yield reductions reduces. As a result, we expect returns to be significantly lower in 2022.

21 January 2022

UK Commercial Property Update

Industrial yield falls set to slow

The industrial sector had its best year in over three decades in 2021 as demand soared and supply struggled to keep up. Although we expect the sector to perform well again this year, we don’t think that yields can continue to fall at the rate seen in 2021.

20 January 2022

UK Commercial Property Update

Which assets can provide the best inflation protection?

Recent data have reinforced concerns about inflation risks in the UK. We remain of the view that property investments provide only limited long-term protection against higher prices, but of the individual asset types, we think industrial and residential are best placed to weather any surge. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this UK Commercial Property Update to clients of our UK Housing Service.

14 January 2022

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UK Housing Market Chart Book

Demand shifts towards outer London

London house prices have underperformed the national average over the past year as the pandemic has led to a shift in demand away from inner cities. Arguably London was due a period of weaker price growth even before the pandemic hit, following the outperformance of the capital in the 2010s. That said, price falls have been focused in the most central boroughs, while the best performing outer boroughs have seen price rises akin to the national average.

2 July 2021

UK Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Lending (May)

The tick up in mortgage approvals for house purchase in May left them 33% above pre-virus norms, and timely indicators suggest that mortgage lending will remain robust despite the looming end of the stamp duty holiday.

Does the end of the holiday mean end of the boom? (1200 BST today, Tuesday 29th June): Join Chief Property Economist Andrew Burrell and Andrew Wishart, the head of our UK Housing Service, for this 20 minute Drop-In session. Register here.

29 June 2021

UK Housing Market Data Response

Nationwide House Prices (Jun.)

House prices recorded a fifth consecutive monthly rise in June, the final month before the stamp duty threshold begins to return to its usual level. There are few signs of market dynamics changing dramatically as a result, so we expect a moderation in house price inflation rather than a collapse.

29 June 2021
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