Norway Consumer Prices (June)

The small increase in headline CPI inflation and small decrease in the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation will make no difference to the immediate outlook for monetary policy, not least because policymakers have their eyes firmly on the housing market rather than on consumer price inflation.
David Oxley Senior Europe Economist
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Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Green bond germination in Denmark

The fact that Denmark’s first “green” bond was nearly five-fold oversubscribed this week, and achieved a 5bp “greenium” over the corresponding conventional 10-year bond, illustrates the depth of investor demand for green debt. Next week, the main data release of note is the preliminary release of Sweden’s Q4 GDP, which we expect will show that output rose by 1.1% q/q.

21 January 2022

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

Norges Bank will resume hikes in March

After twelve years in the job, Øystein Olsen was never going to spring a surprise at his last meeting in charge of the Norges Bank. Instead, the Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and reiterated that it “will most likely be raised in March”. We think it will raise rates four times this year, to 1.5%.

20 January 2022

Nordic & Swiss Chart Book

Riksbank to have to change tack

The Riksbank has learnt from its past tendency to project rate hikes that never arrive. But the single repo rate rise by end-2024 that it currently projects is stretching the limits of plausibility in the other direction.

17 January 2022

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Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Norway GDP (May) & Sweden GDP Indicator (May)

The larger-than-expected rise in mainland Norwegian GDP in May indicates that the economy is back in business following the lifting of restrictions, and it is likely to have regained its pre-virus level in June.

7 July 2021

Global Economics Focus

The CBDCs are coming

We expect some major central banks to issue digital currencies later this decade, with those in countries where cash is rarest proceeding the fastest. The first generation of central bank digital currencies will be purposely designed not to shake up the status quo. But once established they would offer powerful new policy tools. It would be naïve to think that sooner or later central banks won’t consider using them.

6 July 2021

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Löfven exits the stage (not pursued by a bear)

The resignation of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven in Sweden has added to the period of political uncertainty in Sweden. That said, the other leading political actors would probably struggle to pass muster in the Riksdag and so there is a good chance that Mr Löfven will return in the same role before long. Next week, we expect monthly GDP data from Norway to show that mainland activity gathered pace in May, and that core inflation remained below the Norges Bank’s target in June.

2 July 2021
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