Egypt’s President al-Sisi is certain to emerge victorious in next week’s election and will begin his second term just as the economy is about to enjoy a cyclical upturn in growth. Beyond the next few years, though, reforms will be needed to raise Egypt’s low investment rate, boost productivity and create jobs for the country’s burgeoning population. Failure to deliver on reforms, coming in an environment in which political dissent is being repressed, would raise the threat of a renewed bout of unrest. Recent experience shows that this would hit the economy hard.
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