Calling time on the rally in US steel prices

Limited domestic supply, expensive imports and strong growth in demand have fuelled the rally in US steel prices. But with supply set to improve, at a time of softer growth in demand, prices should fall.
Caroline Bain Chief Commodities Economist
Continue reading

More from Metals

Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (Jun.)

Growth in global steel production remained in double digits in June, but this largely reflects the low base for comparison from last year. Meanwhile, government-imposed environmental controls in China weighed heavily on steel production there, and renewed efforts to clamp down on excess steelmaking capacity in recent weeks suggest it will fall further in the months ahead.

23 July 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Jun.)

Global aluminium output growth softened in June, largely due to power cuts in China’s key aluminium-producing province of Yunnan. But these curbs have started to be relaxed in recent weeks, which suggests that growth in global aluminium production will start to accelerate again before long.

20 July 2021

Industrial Metals Update

Beginning of the end for copper rally

After reaching an all-time high in May, the price of copper has since come off the boil. And we think it will fall further over the next eighteen months or so, as a combination of weaker economic growth in China and a greater availability of both ore and scrap supply tips the refined market into a surplus.

16 July 2021

More from Caroline Bain

Commodities Update

China PMIs herald a period of slower growth

China’s June survey data show softer growth in activity and supports our forecast that economic growth will slow from here, which will weigh on the prices of most commodities, especially the metals.

1 July 2021

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

US crude stocks fell for the sixth consecutive week amid the ongoing rebound in product demand as the virus-related restrictions continue to be lifted. That said, if OPEC+ decide to gradually raise output from August (as we expect) and US import volumes pick up, stocks may stabilise in the coming months.

30 June 2021

Industrial Metals Update

Making sense of the rise in exchange stocks

Exchange stocks of base metals have risen this year, which usually suggests that markets are well supplied. But much of the recent build in stocks has been opportunistic and driven by financial considerations rather than a surplus in the market. Regardless, we think that supply of most metals will pick up in the coming months, which should boost stocks further and weigh on prices.

29 June 2021
↑ Back to top