Beginning of the end for copper rally

After reaching an all-time high in May, the price of copper has since come off the boil. And we think it will fall further over the next eighteen months or so, as a combination of weaker economic growth in China and a greater availability of both ore and scrap supply tips the refined market into a surplus.
Kieran Clancy Assistant Commodities Economist
Continue reading

More from Metals

Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (Aug.)

Despite high prices, global steel output contracted in August. And given that the authorities in China are proactively encouraging lower output there, further falls in the coming months appear likely.

23 September 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Aug.)

August’s IAI data suggest that fears that power rationing in Chinese smelting hubs would negatively impact supply, which have boosted aluminium prices to decade highs, are overdone. Instead, we think that any fall in supply will be compensated by weaker demand, causing prices to fall by end-2021.

20 September 2021

Industrial Metals Update

Zinc set to lose its shine

After climbing to multi-year highs in May, the zinc price has stayed strong, with much less volatility than its counterparts. However, we feel weaker economic growth in China and US tapering of monetary policy will work in tandem with the ongoing recovery in supply to push prices lower by end-year.

6 September 2021

More from Kieran Clancy

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

US commercial crude stocks fell for the eighth week in a row, and domestic production is now showing signs of life. This may add to the pressure on OPEC+ to relax output cuts more quickly and avoid a loss of market share to producers in the US.

14 July 2021

Industrial Metals Update

Detailed China trade data highlight supply risks

The breakdown of China’s trade data for May shows that the recovery in imports of scrap and tin ore has hit a few stumbling blocks. Were these issues to persist, they could help to put a floor under prices even if, as we expect, the decline in demand for refined metal in China continues.

1 July 2021

Energy Update

Restocking boost to LNG prices to fade soon

After rising (and falling) sharply at the start of the year, Asia LNG prices have started to push higher again recently. This latest rise seems to have been driven by a rebuilding of stocks, which should run its course over the coming months. That said, the outlook for spot Asia LNG prices further ahead remains bright.

9 June 2021
↑ Back to top