Tweaking – not slashing – our Mexico forecasts

Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US election has led to a rash of sizeable downgrades to growth forecasts for Mexico, including several predictions of a recession. But we think the impact over the next couple of years will be less severe than most expect. We’re nudging down our GDP growth forecasts only modestly to 1.8% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018 (previously 2.2% and 2.5%). Instead, we think the bigger risks lie beyond 2018.